Tehran, Iran – Donald Trump’s second term as US president has promised Iran a path that could lead to a different outcome when it comes to relations with the West, analysts say.

U.S. leaders and the Israelis have been openly discussing a military strike against Iran’s top nuclear facilities and critical infrastructure such as power plants, oil and petrochemical facilities.

Iran’s leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, remain defiant and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has held massive military exercises with a primary focus on defending sensitive sites.

Transformation, but to where?

For more than two decades, Iran’s relationship with the West has been largely determined by the development of the country’s nuclear program and efforts to prevent it from obtaining a nuclear bomb. Tehran has always maintained that it does not seek weapons of mass destruction.

Iran’s top political and military authorities have been discussing the possibility recently. Changing Tehran’s Official Statement of Policy Not pursuing nuclear weapons amid growing security threats.

There appear to be two schools of thought in Tehran: one appears to be open to the possibility of engagement with the United States, including on its nuclear program; the other is outspoken in its pursuit of weapons development, especially given the weakening deterrent against Israel and its regional situation suffered setbacks. Naysan Rafati, senior Iran analyst at the Crisis Group in Washington, pointed out that the United States is an ally.

“But if the former camp prevails, Washington will still need to be willing to engage with Tehran — and, given the fragility of the Islamic Republic, may be inclined to apply tougher pressure on the regime rather than make concessions to it.”

With the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and the collapse of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran has lost one of the tenets of its forward defense strategy. A blow to its “axis of resistance” the whole area.

The country is also subject to widespread sanctions, which have negatively impacted its already struggling economy, causing the national currency to plummet and high inflation, With the energy crisis.

Amid dire economic conditions, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s government expects Send diplomats to Europe With talks later this month with three European countries (France, Germany and the UK), it looks like it wants to further engage with the West.

The general framework being discussed appears to be similar to the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), the nuclear deal Iran reached with world powers in 2015 – lifting some economic pressure on Iran in exchange for curbs on its nuclear programme.

But a new framework has yet to emerge, and any talks so far appear to be consultations aimed at clarifying views.

desire for new deal

The situation is different this time compared with the years of negotiations that preceded the nuclear deal between Iran and the West.

In 2018, Trump violated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action impose tough sanctions on Iran. Five years ago, he also ordered the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s top general and the key architect of the regional axis.

“Unlike the first Trump administration, Europeans will be more inclined to favor whatever policy the United States chooses, as Europeans have supported the maximum pressure campaign to some extent in recent years as tensions with Tehran have grown, ” said Céran Maye, Deputy Director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the Ellie European Council on Foreign Relations.

Abbas Aslani, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Middle East Studies, told Al Jazeera that this year should see major developments that provide better clarity on the direction of Iran’s nuclear program.

Many provisions of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action have expiredAs a result, Aslani said, the willingness to negotiate a new understanding has increased – especially given that a major sunset clause of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action is set to expire in October 2025, which allows the West to resume any Lifted UN sanctions on Iran (quick reinstatement).

Geranmayeh said E3 uses rapid recovery as their last tool to exploit Iran, knowing that if it is used it could trigger “a very unpredictable chain of escalating events.”

Europe will therefore use the remaining time until October to prevent escalation and advance diplomatic efforts.

However, experts say there is still a major question mark over how the Europeans will respond if Trump demands that the three European countries immediately lift sanctions on Iran in exchange for trade-offs on transatlantic issues involving European security.

“We will either have a significant increase in tensions or reach some kind of agreement, albeit limited, on the nuclear program, depending on whether Iran and the United States can reach some understanding,” Aslani said.

It was also possible that Tehran and Washington would sit down for direct negotiations, but Iran has refused to do so due to the U.S.’s unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

“If the Trump administration tries to push too hard to get concessions, even with broader understanding, reaching an agreement will be extremely difficult,” he said.

iran nuclear program

The latest news shows that Iran has not yet started building bombs.

However, it began increasing enrichment levels and the number of centrifuges a year after Trump withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, and repeated the process after Trump withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Israel’s attack on its nuclear facilities and international condemnation.

In recent months, it has Thousands of new centrifuges installed This was in response to the adoption by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors of another Western-sponsored resolution of condemnation.

Currently, Iran’s uranium enrichment level is as high as 60%, which is only a relatively short technical step away from the 90%-plus enrichment required to make a bomb. The International Atomic Energy Agency reports that Tehran has enough fissile material to make multiple bombs. bomb.

Crisis Group’s Rafati said increased nuclear activity gives Iran some leverage in talks with Trump, but also poses considerable risks.

He told Al Jazeera: “Tehran is enriching in a manner that is close to weapons levels and with almost zero breakout time, which blurs the line between a situation that is alarming and alarming enough for the United States and/or Israel to consider taking action. military action.”

Detonation time is the time required to produce enough nuclear fissile material. If it decided to use the bomb, Iran would have to design and assemble a weapon, integrate it with a long-range missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, and successfully test it.

We’re in short-term holding mode because we’re still days away from Trump’s inauguration, “the elephant in the room,” and it’s unclear how his administration plans to shape relations with Iran, senior analyst Celan Mayer said.

“I think it is unlikely that Iran will significantly escalate its nuclear activities in the first few weeks of 2025 unless President Trump aggressively increases maximum pressure,” Celanmaye told Al Jazeera.

She added that Iran’s nuclear activity could cool down slightly if the United States prioritizes diplomatic talks aimed at de-escalating the situation, meaning two distinct scenarios could play out in the future depending on Trump’s own stance.