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The writer is the chair of Rockefeller International. His latest book is ‘What’s Wrong with Capitalism‘

As Donald Trump prepares to take office, his victory is widely seen as part of a global story about disillusioned voters turning against incumbent leaders. But this uprising is not global. This is limited to the developed world.

Last year, incumbent parties lost 85 percent of elections in developed countries, up from 25 percent on average in the early 2000s. In developing countries, the mood has shifted the other way. Incumbents have lost about 25 percent of elections by 2024, up from 50 percent in the early 2000s. Opinion polls tell the same story: the share of respondents who approve of their leader has fallen to around 30 percent in developed countries, while remaining steady at more than 50 percent in developing countries.

Incumbents are as, if not more, popular than ever in the developing world. So what is behind this huge difference?

The anger among powers in Europe, Japan and the US is tied to varying degrees to recent spikes in immigration and prices of staple goods, feeding a sense that the system heavily rigged and biased against the common man. This further drives a long-term decline in public trust in government. But all these forces are less severe or absent at all in many developing democracies, including large ones where incumbent parties are winning, led by India, Indonesia and Mexico.

Voters in the US and Europe said one of their biggest complaints last year was inflation, where the legacy of the pandemic left prices for basic needs much higher. Since the inflation rate has risen faster in developed countries, the shock felt by voters is deeper.

In 2024 in the US the price of eggs, for example, will be 200 percent higher than before the pandemic – compared to about 50 percent higher in India and Indonesia. Even after adjusting for that broader surge in inflation, house prices rose 17 percent in developed countries, compared to just 3 percent in developing ones, which helps explain why unaffordable housing has fueled strong anti-incumbent sentiment in the US and UK.

Meanwhile, the influx of immigration has become a burning electoral issue in the west but not in developing countries, which are mostly departure points rather than destinations for immigrants.

Although the post-pandemic recovery brought many greater profit for the rich than for othersthe gap with the developing world is widening relatively slowly. Since 1980, the income share of the top 1 percent has more than doubled in the US to 21 percent, while only rising 3 points to 18 percent on average in major developing economies. Most surprisingly, Mexico is one of the few countries where the income share of the 1 percent has fallen.

The growing effects of inflation, immigration and inequality help explain why only about 20 percent of Americans express trust in government, down from a high of more than 70 percent in the 1960s. In developing countries, confidence is increasing on average, boosted in the last decade by large gains in countries where incumbents won last year. Almost 50 percent of Mexicans and more than 70 percent of Indians and Indonesians now express confidence in their government.

One reason trust is rising is the rapid digitization of government, which is improving the delivery of public services by cutting out corrupt middlemen. By 2022, led by India’s gains, the governments of developing countries will catch up with their developed peers in the World Bank’s “government technology maturity” index.

In the developing world, electoral battles are more unique and localized. In Mexico, the incumbent party won last year for reasons including its record in fighting poverty, and in Indonesia because of the popularity of outgoing president Joko Widodo despite charges that he placed his son male as heir. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi suffered the loss of his legislative majority, but still won a third term, with progress from more efficient delivery of welfare benefits. Across India, incumbent parties have fared well in recent state elections as well.

These mood swings tend to persist. In 2025, polls show that incumbents are set to lose all three national elections in the developed world – in Germany, Australia and Canada. There are fewer major national elections in the developing world and emerging markets, but polls point to more mixed results. Incumbents are headed for defeat in national elections in Poland and Romania, victory in Ecuador and major legislative elections in Argentina and the Philippines. At the moment, most of the developing world sees no urgent reason to end the hardships.