After 15 months of devastating war, Israel and Hamas on Wednesday agreed to a ceasefire deal that will end the conflict in Gaza and ensure the release of the remaining 98 hostages held by the militants in the strip.

The multi-stage agreement – brokered and guaranteed by the US, Egypt and Qatar – will mark the first ceasefire since a week-long ceasefire in November 2023. It is due to come into effect on Sunday.

If implemented in full, it will permanently end the war that began with Hamas’s October 7 2023 attack on the Jewish state.

How will the ceasefire begin?

The agreement called for an initial six-week ceasefire, during which both parties stopped fighting. The Israeli military will begin redeploying east from urban centers across Gaza, the agreement says, to what Israel describes as “buffer zones” it holds on the Palestinian side of the border.

Critically, at the end of the first phase the agreement also called for Israeli troops to leave the critical route known as the Netzarim corridor that separates the north of the strip from the south, and to leave Gaza’s border with Egypt inside in 50 days.

According to the terms, the Rafah border crossing connecting Gaza and Egypt, which was seized by Israel in May and largely destroyed, is expected to reopen. That would revive the strip’s only link to the outside world that was not directly controlled by Israel before the war.

Are Palestinians allowed to return home?

Residents of Gaza will be allowed to return to the rest of their homes, including Palestinians who disappeared from north to south Gaza during the war, a population estimated at hundreds of thousands.

An Israeli official said Israel insisted that “security arrangements” run by an unnamed private company be put in place at checkpoints from south to north. They aim to ensure that the militants do not return to northern Gaza, where Hamas launched most of the attack on October 7 2023 that killed 1,200 people, according to Israeli authorities.

The agreement also requires Israel to allow 600 trucks full of humanitarian aid a day into the devastated territory, half of which will be allocated to northern Gaza, where people are suffering from severe hunger, according to international observers. .

The north has been hardest hit by Israel’s devastating retaliatory offensive, which has killed more than 46,000 people, according to health authorities in the Hamas-controlled territory, and reduced much of the strip to rubble. – ob.

International aid groups say that the infrastructure to get food, medicine, fuel and other goods to Gaza needs to be increased significantly, because the amounts stipulated in the agreement will increase the amount going into the strip at least three times.

Which hostages held in Gaza will be released?

For Israel, the important victory in the first phase of the agreement was the return of 33 hostages still held by Hamas, including children, civilian women, female soldiers, over 50 years old and the wounded. .

It remains unclear how many people who met this criteria are still alive, although an Israeli official said this week that “many of them, most of them” are still alive.

Under the agreement, three female captives are scheduled to be released on Sunday, followed by at least three more captives every seven days. Crucially for Israel, the living hostages are released first, followed by the dead at the end of the six-week period.

What about Palestinian prisoners?

For every civilian hostage released, Israel committed to release 30 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons, with the number rising to 50 Palestinian detainees for every female Israeli soldier. During this period, the emphasis is on the liberation of Gazans who were trapped during the war, but were not involved in the attack by Hamas on October 7 2023.

More than 100 Palestinians serving life sentences on murder and terrorism charges will also be released, with some deported to third countries.

Between 1,000 and 1,650 Palestinians are expected to be released in this phase of the agreement, depending on the number of surviving hostages who are eventually released from Gaza.

Need more details?

No later than the 16th day of the ceasefire, the parties must start negotiations on the second – and probably more difficult – stage: the release of the remaining 65 hostages, all men under 50, incl. the soldiers, in return for a perfect Israeli. withdrawal from Gaza and a permanent ceasefire.

The number of Palestinian prisoners set to be released in exchange for each Israeli soldier is likely to be even higher in this second phase, which is expected to last six weeks.

Negotiators also discussed a potential third phase of the deal, in which the bodies of Israeli hostages and Palestinian militants would be returned, and the rebuilding Gaza start under Qatari, Egyptian and UN supervision. There is a growing possibility that the second and third episodes will be combined, however, analysts said.

Can the ceasefire collapse?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly said that he is not ready to completely end the war until he achieves “total victory” and the complete “destruction” of Hamas.

That makes resuming the fight after the initial six-week layoff a distinct possibility.

However, international pressure – possibly including from the incoming US administration of Donald Trump, which is claiming credit for the ceasefire – could force Israel’s veteran leader to continue implementing the agreement. to cease fire beyond the first stage and to stop the war completely.

Cartography and data visualization by Aditi Bhandari