Gaza’s long-overdue ceasefire may stop killings but won’t end conflict


A senior Palestinian official told the BBC that Hamas will release three female soldiers on the first day of the ceasefire. Mediators in Doha are trying to start the ceasefire earlier on Thursday night instead of Sunday.

Before the ceasefire came into effect, the war that began when Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, continued. At least 12 Palestinians were killed in Israeli attacks on northern Gaza before and after the ceasefire was announced.

In rituals that have taken place sometimes hourly over the past 15 months, videos from northern Gaza show their bodies being carried out of ambulances wrapped in sheets and lined up outside hospitals.

The ceasefire was a major diplomatic achievement. It’s already too late. Versions of the deal have been under discussion since it was announced by U.S. President Joe Biden last May. Hamas and Israel blame each other for the delays.

In Gaza’s Khan Younis, journalists working for the BBC filmed Palestinians dancing and chanting slogans as it became clear a ceasefire had been agreed.

Israel does not allow international journalists into Gaza to report freely, so the BBC and other news organizations rely on brave Palestinian journalists to gather the news for us. Without them, covering the past 15 months of war would have been impossible. Israel has killed more than 200 Palestinian journalists in Gaza.

Umm Muhammad, an elderly Palestinian woman, told one of our reporters she was happy and relieved.

“The pain has gone away a little bit, but it’s still there. Hopefully it will be overcome by the joy. Let our prisoners be released and the injured be treated. People are exhausted.”

For Palestinians in Gaza, there is little to celebrate except survival. Israel has killed at least nearly 50,000 people. Israeli military operations have forced more than two million people from their homes.

Hamas launched an attack on October 7, 2023, resulting in the death of approximately 1,200 people, most of whom were Israeli civilians. Israel’s response left Gaza in ruins. Israeli attacks have killed nearly 50,000 people, including combatants and civilians, according to the Hamas-run health ministry. A recent study in the Lancet medical journal suggests this may be significantly underestimated.

In Tel Aviv, it was also a bittersweet moment for the families and supporters of the Israeli hostages, living and dead. In the first phase of the ceasefire, 33 women, elderly men and the sick and wounded are to be released over the next six weeks in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian detainees and prisoners, but the future of the remaining hostages depends on more negotiations.

Negotiations on the second phase of the deal, which will begin sixteen days after the deal is signed, aim to release remaining Israeli hostages in exchange for imprisoned Palestinians and Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza.

The first major challenge is ensuring that the ceasefire remains. Senior Western diplomats worry that the war could resume 42 days after the first phase.

The war in Gaza had a huge impact on the entire Middle East. It did not lead to an all-out war in the region, as many feared — for which the Biden administration claimed responsibility — but it led to geostrategic upheaval.

Hamas can still fight, but is a shadow of its past. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former defense minister have been charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court. The International Court of Justice is investigating a case brought by South Africa accusing Israel of genocide.

After Lebanese Hezbollah intervened in the war, it was eventually suppressed by an Israeli offensive. This was a factor that led to the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. Iran and Israel attack each other directly—weakening Iran. The network of allies and proxies that Tehran calls the “axis of resistance” has been paralyzed.

Yemen’s Houthis have halted most shipping between Europe and Asia via the Red Sea. There are now reports that they have declared a ceasefire. Since they began attacking shipping early in the war, they have said only a ceasefire in Gaza could stop them.

With luck, political will and strenuous diplomacy, the ceasefire will be maintained despite inevitable violations. With luck, it could stop the killings and allow Israeli hostages, Palestinian detainees and prisoners to return to their families.

But 15 months after the Gaza war, the conflict that has lasted for more than a century is as fierce and difficult as ever.

The ceasefire did not end the conflict. The consequences of so much destruction and death will be felt for at least a generation.



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