Countries around the world are bracing for an economic shock on Monday. And few have a higher stake than Canada.

That’s because three-quarters of everything Canada sells to the world is to the United States, and US President-elect Donald Trump is threatening trade penalties the day he takes office.

We know he’s planning 100 executive orders starting on Inauguration Day, and will almost certainly include trade and border measures.

What we don’t know is the scope, severity and structure of his promised trade actions. Even Trump’s Republican allies on Capitol Hill aren’t sure, and public comments suggest the full plan won’t be finalized Monday.

“In short, what I’m hearing is, ‘We don’t know what he’s going to do,'” Canada’s U.S. ambassador Kirsten Hillman told CBC News, describing her conversations with Republican lawmakers and state governors.

“I’d like to say we know what’s going to happen. I guess we won’t know until Monday,” she said.

Here are five things to watch.

Which law will they use?

The president has various powers to impose tariffs under US trade laws. No president in modern history has used these laws as aggressively as Trump is threatening to do.

Trump will apply different tools at different times, to different countries and products, predicts Canada-US trade expert Laura Dawson.

“I think they’re going to try every avenue,” Dawson said.

Those potential tools include Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which allows tariffs based on national security, as Trump once did on steel and aluminum.

There’s also Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 — it allows the president to punish unfair practices, as Trump and President Joe Biden have done both done with China.

Another part of the 1974 law, Section 122, allows for tariffs to alleviate trade imbalances. It is worth noting here that Trump constantly complains about unbalanced trade.

Finally, there’s the never-before-used tariff weapon: in 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), in the event of a national emergency.

Although no president has ever used the 1977 law to impose tariffs, it has an attractive quality for a die-hard protectionist: It works quickly.

Implementation of the IEEPA first requires the President to declare a national emergency; Trump clearly hinted at one when he complained about the broken border with Mexico and Canada.

“If they want to push the boundaries of what’s legal, they could try,” said Simon Lester, a trade lawyer, analyst and former World Trade Organization official.

“They could just say, ‘Hey, IEEPA gives us this authority. We’re going to impose 10 percent tariffs on the whole world or on these specific products. Let’s see what the courts have to say about that,'” Lester said.

All other laws carry certain burdens: Sections 232 and 301, for example, require some kind of study, and the use of Section 122 is limited to 150 days. Trump could turn to these laws for some of his actions.

How big will it get?

There’s a reason estimates of the economic damage vary so much: Trump has been almost comically inconsistent in discussing the size of his tariffs.

Now he is threatening a 25 percent tax on Canada and Mexico, which would be devastating and, if applied to the entire economy, would cause a severe recession.

But he’s been all over the map since the start of his last presidential campaign, and even in recent weeks he’s vacillated between different arguments for tariffs.

“We’ve heard 10 percent universal (tariffs), 20 percent universal, 60 percent for China, 40 percent for China, 100 percent for cars, 200 percent, 1,000 percent,” the US federal budget said. expert Marc Goldwein.

“I think we all scoffed at this, but I get it,” Goldwein said.

He says Trump has made it clear in his public statements that he is not targeting any specific numbers. He is determined to use tariffs to achieve certain things.

But any significant tariff for Canada will cause long-term damage, according to Dawson, who says that’s the case even if the tariffs are only in place for a short time.

“It’s moving investment south. It’s stalling manufacturing decisions,” she said.

He is already hearing that international companies are considering moving some production from Canadian facilities to their American ones. Honda has publicly thought on the reduction of production in Canada.

How fast will it go?

There are reasons to believe we won’t get the full picture on Monday. There were various to the media leaks about ongoing discussions in Trump’s circle, and his nominee for Treasury secretary hinted at a congressional hearing that the full policy is still being worked out.

Plus, there are benefits to moving slowly.

One is to test market reaction rather than risk a crash on the first day of his presidency. With that in mind, some are helpful allegedly urging Trump to start with a small tariff and gradually increase it by two percentage points each month.

Scott Lincicome, a trade attorney and analyst, expects a gradual increase. He says he foresees limited action on the first day: perhaps tariffs on China, plus some announcements to start the process for additional tariffs.

For example, he said, Trump could declare a national emergency under IEEPA or launch months-long investigations under Sections 232 or 301. Then he would use all of that as a bargaining chip.

“These things give Trump the ability to run around the world threatening everybody without actually hurting the economy. I mean, it’s going to hurt the economy — the invisible way. Uncertainty about trade policy hurts investment,” Lincicome said.

“(It puts) Trump in the middle of the Trump Show, without actually imposing tariffs on Ford Festivas from Mexico and auto parts going to BMW in South Carolina.”

Another argument for slowness: the budgeting process. Later this year, Republicans in Congress are planning a bill to cut taxes.

It’s complicated and involved process because he bypassed the Senate’s three-fifths filibuster rule and passed the budget proposal with a simple majority.

In order for the tax cuts to be permanent, the bill must not increase the deficit; tariff revenue it would helpaccording to a document prepared by Republican lawmakers.

That’s a long shot. Republicans in Congress are currently insisting that is not their plan. And enough of them still don’t like tariffs that trying to enshrine them in long-term law could end up killing the bill in a narrow vote.

“Tariffs will not be legislated,” Lincicome said.

But it’s too soon to be sure, in Goldwein’s view. He says Republicans are desperate to pass tax cuts and, in his view, “will try anything.”

What is Trump’s goal here?

There are three goals to Trump’s tariffs, his nominee for Treasury secretary said at a Senate hearing last week.

One is to correct unfair trade practices, whether by industry or by country, said Scott Bessent, who specifically alluded to China and steel.

Second: increase revenues. “For the federal budget,” said Bessent, the billionaire financier.

And finally, there is the art of the deal. “For negotiations,” he said, explaining that tariffs can be used as leverage over other countries instead of sanctions, which Trump believes are overused.

Just look at how Canada responded. That threat of tariffs prompted Canada to release a list of policies related to border security, migration, fentanyl trafficking and organized crime.

Bessent did not specifically mention Canada. But he mentioned Mexico and fentanyl when talking about tariffs as bargaining leverage.

What could stop Trump?

Don’t count on the courts. Trade experts interviewed for this story and others writingthe vast majority call it that unlikely for the lawsuits against Trump to succeed.

They said the judges largely deferred to the presidents on matters of national security and tariffs. Congress did the same, adding these presidential powers into law during the Cold War.

If there are any guardrails on Trump — any checks — look elsewhere. In Lincicome’s opinion, it is the biggest market.

Trump will not be averse to starting his presidency with a stock market crash under a series of negative economic headlines, Lincicome said.

And the market does not expect large tariffs, based on its current behavior. At most, Lincicome said, he expects tariffs on China and on several critical goods.

“Not these massive global tariffs. Not 25 percent tariffs on avocados from Mexico,” Lincicome said. “(Trump) wants to avoid millions of news stories about Trumpflation. About guacamole prices going up before the Super Bowl,” he said.

“I think that will serve as a check.”

To be clear: If Trump gets ahead, lawsuits will fly. But even if those lawsuits succeed, it could take months or years of litigation to overturn them, according to Lincicome.

“By the time it goes through the courts, the damage is already done,” he said.