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As US President Donald Trump announces plans to withdraw from various international organizations and agreements, China is positioning itself as a global leader and capitalizing on the opportunity to fill the void left by the United States on the world stage, analysts say.
On his first day in office after his inauguration on Monday, Trump signed executive orders beginning the process of withdrawing from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the 2015 Paris climate change agreement, as he did in his first term.
The Republican president’s moves call into question the future of global public health responses and climate goals, and leave a leadership vacuum that China could try to fill.
“This creates the potential for China to further strengthen its influence in the world’s multilateral institutions and help govern the world,” said Gregory Chin, associate professor of political economy at York University in Toronto.
Indeed, China already appears to be sending these signals.
Chinese messages
In what could be seen as a strategically timed meeting, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke via video just hours after Trump’s inauguration, underscoring their continued alliance.
“I am willing to work with you to continue to steer Sino-Russian relations to a new height in 2025, to respond to external uncertainties,” Xi reportedly told Putin.
The Chinese leader said he wanted to “uphold international fairness and justice.”
At the same time, Chinese officials echoed this message Tuesday at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, praising the country’s commitment to combating climate change.
“China has always firmly supported true multilateralism,” Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang said, adding that the country “steadily upholds the international system… and firmly upholds the international order based on international law.”
In terms of “peace and security,” Ding said “China has the best record among the world’s major powers.”
Also Tuesday at a press conference in Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun reiterated China’s concerns over the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.
“Climate change is a common challenge facing all of humanity,” he said. “China’s determination and actions to actively respond to climate change are consistent.”
During Trump’s first term, the US also withdrew from several international agreements, including The Paris Agreement on climate change, Trans-Pacific Partnership and United Nations Human Rights Council.
He seems to be continuing on the same path.
When Trump won the presidential election in November over Kamala Harris, the Democratic vice-president, Jia Wang, a senior fellow and senior adviser at the China Institute at the University of Alberta in Edmonton, he told CBC News that China could capitalize to the situation.
“China could use this opportunity to make more friends or at least reduce rivals and enemies,” she said.
Cost of development
As the US turns inward, and as the new president touts the beginning of America’s “golden age” and the end of its “decline,” China is asserting itself.
“Inadvertently, the Trump administration may be weakening America’s positioning in the world vis-à-vis China,” said York University’s Chin.
At least in terms of climate, China has positioned itself as a green leader has been taking initiatives for years to achieve its goal of carbon neutrality by 2060 — including investing in renewable energy and leading the world in electric vehicles and batteries. This is despite the fact that it is still the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gasesresponsible for a third of the world’s emissions.
But this positioning, however strategic, comes out of necessity, said Yongjing Zhang, an associate professor of economics and politics at the University of Ottawa.
“China really cares about climate change,” Zhang said, adding that the country is now suffering the “cost” of its rapid development. “No matter what happens to other countries, China will deal with it.”
Simply put, there is no choice.
Global health security
On Tuesday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo also expressed strong support for the World Health Organization after Trump’s announcement, saying China “will as always support the WHO in fulfilling its duty, deepening international cooperation in public health.”
Trump has accused the institution, the United Nations agency, of being biased against China and criticized its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic – as he did during his first term in office, when he also tried to oust America’s Joe Biden, who succeeded Trump as the president after his first term, later changed his decision.
However, China’s future role in the health sphere is even more unclear, despite its messages. USA is far away the biggest financial sponsor of the agency, which accounts for about 18 percent of the total financing. The latest WHO budget for the period 2024-25. was 6.8 billion US dollars.
It is currently unclear how that funding gap would be filled, as experts have warned that the move could weaken global public health security — and could weaken the world’s defenses against future pandemics and infectious diseases.
Being allies ‘mean nothing now’
What are emerging in the early days of Trump’s presidency are indications that America’s allies are increasingly worried about what a more confident Trump would mean in his second term, given his unpredictability.
“You have to throw the terms of friendship and allies out the window,” said Lynette Ong, distinguished professor of Chinese politics at the University of Toronto. “That doesn’t mean anything now.”
Ong said that while China could very well assert itself, she would like to see more evidence that the country is putting its words into action.
But York University’s Chin said that US isolationism would ultimately mean that other countries would face a decision in the alliance system.
“It’s a choice between siding with America moving forward or some multipolar set of options,” he said.
Those options, Chin said, could include BRICS countrieswhich includes China and Russia.
US President Donald Trump will not impose his promised tariffs on Canada, Mexico or China on his first day in office, according to multiple US reports, giving the country some reprieve, at least for now.
“If you’re in the West, you might see this as a threat to the so-called rules-based international order,” he said. “But if you’re in the rest of the world, you might say that some of these changes might actually be improvements.”
Like Trump threatens higher tariffs for countries like China, Canada and Mexico, China reduced customs duties on hundreds of goods is coming to the country this month. And whatever the motivation, Chin suggests it could be just one reason why other nations might strengthen relations with the country as the US distances itself.
