US President Donald Trump said in his inauguration speech that the “proudest legacy” of his presidency will be that of “a peacemaker and a unifier.”

“We will measure our success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars we end,” he said on Monday, before referring to the release of the first Israeli prisoners from Gaza as part of the ceasefire. In part, the ceasefire was intended to give him an early political victory.

Later in the day, while signing a series of agreements executive order Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he had “no confidence” in the deal he essentially reached credit and force through will be held.

But, Trump added, “This is not our war. This is their war.”

Trump has made no secret of his desire to see Israel end the Gaza war before taking office, winning re-election in part on his pledge to put “America first” and disengage from conflicts overseas. But analysts warn that despite Trump’s attempts to project a tough image and his success in forcing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree, his early actions and first four years in office left little doubt that his administration’s attitude towards Israel Firm support. He rejected the deal months ago.

“All it takes is a threat,” Palestinian analyst and former negotiator Diana Butou told Al Jazeera, praising Trump for using his position in a way that previous President Joe Biden had never done. “Having said that, I don’t think we should give Trump so much fanfare and applause because I don’t think this is a deal that brings no rewards to Netanyahu and costs (the Palestinians).”

israel’s reward

If rewards are promised in exchange for the deal, Trump’s first hours in office may show what that is, Butu said. Trump wasted no time Lift Sanctions on Biden On Tuesday, his pick for ambassador to the United Nations, Elise Stefanik, said during her confirmation hearing that Israel “biblical rights“To the West Bank. Trump’s pick for ambassador to Israel Mike HuckabeeHe has previously quoted the Bible on the issue, saying: “There is no such thing as the West Bank. This is Judea and Samaria.”

These actions and statements simply build on what Trump has already done during his first presidential term from 2017 to 2021, including Cut funding United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA); recognize jerusalem Remaining the capital of Israel despite the occupation of the eastern half of Palestine; moving the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem; and recognize Israeli sovereignty Occupied Golan Heights, Syrian territory.

On Wednesday, the fourth day of a ceasefire in Gaza, Israeli forces began attacking Jenin in the occupied West Bank, causing casualties. At least 10 people and raised concerns that Israel would further intensify its attacks. The United States did not object because the ceasefire did not include the West Bank.

“Netanyahu always gets huge rewards,” Butu said, noting that she also expected the president to soon crack down on the pro-Palestinian movement in the United States, another Israeli priority. “Trump gave the Israelis almost everything they wanted, he just said to them, ‘Don’t keep me up at night.'”

Still, Trump hinted on day one that the ceasefire might not be effective, suggesting that even such a reward might not be enough to commit Netanyahu to a ceasefire he has been fighting to secure for months. . political survival.

HA Hellyer, a political analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London and the Center for American Progress in Washington, D.C., said Trump may be ready to blame others — possibly Hamas — for what he claims is the possible failure of the deal. Credit.

“Trump wants a deal so that he can say he has a deal,” Hellyer told Al Jazeera, adding that “he would be surprised if we could get it all done” first stageunless we get more intervention from Washington, D.C.”

He pointed to Netanyahu’s repeated claims that Israel “correct“The resumption of fighting in Gaza — and the U.S.’s support for it — shows that there is no real commitment on the part of Israel to a ceasefire.

“Everyone calls it a ceasefire, but a ceasefire shows a commitment from all parties not to return to war. We don’t have anything like that yet,” Hellyer said. “Statements from various Trump administration officials, as well as from Trump himself, are not good on this front either. Will Trump use U.S. influence to ensure that Israel completes Phase 1 and moves all the way to Phase 3? The indications are not encouraging. People are inspiring.”

“Deal of the Century”

Some analysts say that while Trump believes the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is “not our war,” he may have a genuine interest in his legacy as a dealmaker.

During his first term, Trump proposed an Israeli-Palestinian “peace deal,” which his administration dubbed the “deal of the century,” as he sought to “normalization” relations between Israel and several Arab countries, Bypass the Palestinians During this process. This time around, he is widely expected to once again pursue a deal that, while cementing his legacy, could also benefit his business interests in the region.

But normalization requires a more inclusive political project Abraham AccordsMatt Deuce, executive vice president of the Progressive International Policy Center, said Trump pushed for this during his first term.

“If Trump really wants to make peace as he claims, if he really wants to win the Nobel Peace Prize, if he really wants to do what no other president has been able to do, between Israel and the Palestinians “A just and reasonable solution for the Palestinians is absolutely critical to achieving peace and the normalization of Israel to address the region’s problems in a real and sustainable way.”

“The way to approach Trump is to inspire in him a sense of his own greatness,” Duss added. “I think it needs to be explained to him that in order for the peace and normalization agreement to actually be realistic and sustainable and not just a “The series of arms deals, this is the Abraham Accords, it has to have a real solution that’s just for the Palestinians.”

This is a difficult task. Given its expansion into the occupied territories, Israel has shown little interest in anything that might bring the Palestinians closer to statehood — a possibility that many analysts believe has long been ruled out anyway.

This week, Israeli President Isaac HerzogTrump, who has previously vocally supported the concept of Palestinian statehood, told the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that the attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023 was a “wake-up call” to its legitimacy.

Moreover, Trump’s own allegiances are sometimes conflicting: to a large Christian Zionist political base firmly aligned with Israel’s far-right political forces; to donors such as Israeli-American billionaires Miriam Adelsonprovided nearly $100 million in support to his campaign; and Gulf partners such as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has so far said normalizing relations with Israel will depend on Palestinian statehood.

For a president who claims to put “America first,” it’s hard to imagine how Trump will emerge from this conflict.

“I think Trump is really an America first guy. He doesn’t want to worry about war anymore. He doesn’t like to think about it, and he keeps repeating that over and over again,” Butu said. “But at the same time, I don’t know who’s going to pull him.”