Dhaka, Bangladesh – On the afternoon of July 16, 2024, as Abu Sayeed, a student leader at the forefront of protests against the leadership of then-Prime Minister Sheikh Haisna ) was shot dead by police in Rangpur, a northern district – a strikingly different scene was unfolding. Dhaka capital.

At the Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock, Hasina’s senior leader of the Awami League, Government Minister Abdur Rahman, sat in his office , enjoying the performance of poetry by local poets.

Video from that day captures Abdur Rahman lying in a chair, leaning his fist against his right cheek, and listening casually. Finally, he responded with a light-hearted: “Great.”

Moments later, when informed by an aide following Sayeed’s killing, he dismissed concerns, saying: “Oh, nothing will happen. The leader (Hasina) will handle everything.”

This contrast between the tensions of deadly violence on Bangladesh’s streets and the minister’s seemingly casual demeanor has since epitomized how, for many in the country, the Awami League has been at odds with the grassroots reality across the country. Disjointed.

Less than three weeks later, Hasina’s government was accused of authoritarianism and brutality. Overthrown by student-led uprising. At least 834 people lost their lives Attacks by law enforcement officers on protesters and bystanders. The protests began on July 1 and ended on August 5, with Hasina fleeing to India. More than 20,000 people were injured, including women and children.

The turmoil has drawn down the curtain on Hasina’s 16-year leadership. Now, five months later, her party – which has been a major force in Bangladeshi politics since before the country was born – is still trying to pick through the pieces. There are clear divisions between the unapologetic party’s efforts and mid-level leaders and activists who believe the Awami alliance needs to reflect on when it went wrong – and the ways in which the 75-year-old party’s efforts to tackle the divide could determine its future.

A political party splits

Many Awami Alliance leaders continue to favor accountability.

“We are victims of an international conspiracy; the party’s joint secretary AFM Bahauddin Nasim will soon prove it.

Analysts believe this narrative underscores the leadership’s denial of failure and inability to address public dissatisfaction.

This, in turn, has alienated the party’s rank and file, many of whom now hide or fear the legal repercussions of the killing. They lament the party’s transformation from a mass-linked organization to a top-down structure that has lost touch with public sentiment.

On August 5, 2024, the then Prime Minister joined her sister Sheikh Rehana as a large crowd marched towards Hasina’s official residence Escape from Ghana Baba (The prime minister’s residence) on a military helicopter.

“While the dramatic escape was televised, I was still on the streets of Khulna with some activists. I tried to call our senior leader, the local MP, but his phone was switched off Anonymous.

“At that moment, I feel cheated. “

On October 23, 2024, the interim government led by the Nobel Prize winner Muhammad Yunus BCL is prohibited. The once-limited BCL leader from Khulna narrates his harrowing journey to safety. He fled to neighboring Gopalganj and then moved to Dhaka under a false identity.

“I changed my Facebook account, phone number and everything. I have started a small business to survive. The political parties have abandoned us. I will never go back to politics,” he said.

Grassroots activists across the country share similar feelings of abandonment.

While many members remain silent, Assistant Secretary of Bangladesh Krishak League Samiul Bashir has been vocal on social media platforms.

“Committed activists have been sidelined for years. Since 2014, opportunists and family members of local legislators have dominated the party structure at the grassroots, leading to disaster,” he told Al Jazeera.

Leaders of the pro-Wami Alliance Doctors Association, who spoke on condition of anonymity, echoed similar frustrations. “The actions and words of those who raised the party profile have been disastrous, especially over the past few years.”

Reflecting on the party’s failure, he told Al Jazeera: “It’s a harsh reality that our party relies so heavily on intelligence reports to make decisions. I found that many top leaders don’t know how to make decisions or make decisions.”

Analysts say a lack of democratic customs has also plunged the party into disarray. For the past ten years, for example, all cells of the Awami League and its affiliates in the Dhaka metropolitan area have been functioning with outdated committees, relying on the same old membership without any changes.

no remorse

The Awami Alliance has yet to issue a formal apology or statement acknowledging its government’s actions during the student-led uprising known as the July Movement.

Instead, the party has repeatedly dismissed the movement, such as a January 10 press release in which the Jubo League described it as a “terrorist uprising” purportedly motivated by an effort to push the country toward It was carefully planned by the Pakistani forces. Thought”.

In a nearly hour-long conversation with Al Jazeera, Naseem also repeatedly accused Bangladeshi student wing Islam Chhatra Shibir of Jamate-e-Islami (BJI) A party that “misleads” students under the guise of anti-Quota movement. The counter-price movement in Bangladesh 2024 began with student protests against a discriminatory quota system in public jobs. Escalating due to government repression and widespread bloodshed, it turned into a wider uprising against Hasina’s government.

Jamaat has long been a controversial figure in Bangladeshi politics because of its opposition to the country’s independence from Pakistan in 1971.

During the recent leadership of the AWAMI alliance, five top Jamaican leaders and one senior leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) were executed for war crimes. Both the BNP and Jamaat have faced severe repression from Hasina’s government, including widespread enforced disappearance and extrajudicial killings.

Nasim admitted to Al Jazeera that his party had made “strategic mistakes” but mainly attributed them to “intelligence failures”.

However, Hasina and Home Minister’s aide Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal claimed in a recent interview with leading Indian newspaper Indian Express that the Awami League (Awami League) is a victim of “Awami League is”. A joint coup” was carried out by “Islamic terrorists and the military.”

Others close to the party disagree.

Tanjim Ahmad Sohel Taj, son of Bangladesh’s first prime minister Tajuddin Ahmad and former state affairs minister, laments the party There is a lack of internal accountability.

“The Awami League must apologize to the people of Bangladesh for injustice, oppression, corruption, looting and laundering of billions of dollars. I have not seen any self-fulfillment, self-criticism or guilt,” he said in a TV interview. explain.

Al Masud Hasanuzzaman, an analyst and political science professor at Dhaka’s Jahangirnagar University, believes the party’s hard-line stance and decisions fueled public anger and paved the way for the uprising’s success.

“The fanatical measures ended up hurting Sheikh Hasina’s popularity, turning her resignation into a single demand,” he told Al Jazeera.

Resurrection – a tough battle

Hasina is no stranger to exile, nor is she a comeback.

Following his assassination, leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and most of his family, including his daughter Hasina, died in India on August 15, 1975 Stayed for several years.

But she returned to Bangladesh in 1981 to lead the Awami League. It took 21 years to rebuild the party and return to power.

“But this time is different; the party was mired in a bloody student-led uprising backed by the military, and Sheikh Hasina’s image as a leader was severely damaged.” Hassanuz Hasanuzzman said.

He believes that the Awami Alliance faces a serious image and leadership crisis. “Rebuilding the party without Sheikh Hasina will be challenging and internal divisions may be challenging,” he said.

The BNP and Jamaat, the country’s two other major political forces, have both said they want Awami League leaders and activists involved in citizen-killings in July and August last year to face trial . Ultimately, however, they believe the fate of the Awami League will be decided by the people of the country.

However, the student movement that led to the strike Hasina movement took a more uncompromising stance on the future of the Awami League.

At a street rally on January 25, Mahfuz Alam, an adviser to the Yunus government and the student movement, said the Awami League would not be allowed to participate in the next election, which Yunus said would be To be held in early 2026.

“Our focus includes Prosecution of persons involved in murderdisappeared and raped while implementing reforms and ensuring the participation of all pro-Bangladesh parties. ” he said.

From the Awami Alliance’s perspective, the election could be crucial. Hasanuzzaman said: “If the AL (Awami League) can contest the election, it will be a foothold for the party to return.”

“However, without the Awami Alliance working to rebuild public trust through leadership, organization and grassroots connections, political revitalization will be very difficult,” he added.

Ali Riaz, a political analyst and professor at Illinois State University, outlined four conditions under which the Awami League would need to meet to have any chance of a potential comeback: The 16-year-old criminal issued an unquestionable apology, especially for the rise in 2024. ; Abandon current ideology; Ensure any member of Hasina’s family leads the party again. and facing trial for heinous crimes, including crimes against humanity.

“Those directly responsible for the atrocities of the July uprising, including by Sheikh Hasina, must face justice. Only if these conditions are met, any discussion of their comeback can take place,” Riaz told Al Jazeera. Riaz is also deputy chairman of a government committee headed by Yunus tasked with building consensus on a series of proposed reforms.

Still, many Awami Alliance activists continue to have faith in Hasina, even as they occasionally criticize her family for private abuses of power.

Senior leaders abroad are using social media and talk shows to urge them to regroup and suggest the Yunus-led government “failed.”

But that’s a hard sell for party activists. In the comments section below at the party leader’s assertion that these junior AWAMI alliance leaders are pushing back – pointing out that when militants on the ground spread out and hide militants in foreign countries, it is easy for leaders in exile to Speak Bangladesh in foreign asylums.

Like former Khulna student leaders, many of them are too afraid to reveal their identities publicly. Political comeback has a long way to go.