Beirut, Lebanon – A new president. New Prime Minister. There is a sense that Hezbollah – arguably the most powerful organization in the country – has been weakened.

For Lebanon, these are potentially transformative weeks, especially against a backdrop where the political system often appears frozen.

These developments are cause for celebration by many Lebanese, but may also raise questions across the political class, including Hezbollah.

Hezbollah is a Shia political group and militia that has ruled Lebanon for much of the past two decades. But it has suffered numerous setbacks in the past few months, including losing most of its senior members, including leader Hassan Nasrallah, and subsequently its staunch ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria in the war with Israel ·The fall of the Assad regime. .

“Hezbollah still has legitimacy,” Lebanese political researcher Ziad Majid told Al Jazeera. “It must accept being a strong – and it will be strong – Lebanese party like all other parties, but without ownership of decisions about war and peace.”

Hezbollah’s “cut off hand”

Hezbollah provided help Joseph Aoun Support him in the second round of voting on January 9 to get the votes needed to become president. But the group had planned to support incumbent Najib Mikati in the January 13 prime ministerial vote, but abstained from the vote after the situation became clear Nawaf SalamThe former president of the International Court of Justice will win.

Hezbollah lawmaker Mohamed Raad said the group had extended a helping hand to the country by voting for Aoun, but that Salam’s nomination had “cut off that hand.”

The Iran-backed group believes many opponents in the government are exploiting the losses it suffered in Israel’s war with Lebanon.

However, in his first speech as Prime Minister-designate, Salam pledged to unite the Lebanese people and addressed issues that profoundly affect the Shiite community. israel’s war on the country. Israel’s attacks in Lebanon have mainly focused on areas with large Shia populations, even in areas where many locals say Hezbollah’s military infrastructure or fighters are non-existent, including southern Lebanon, much of the Bekaa Valley and the outskirts of Beirut. These areas are widely known as “Islamic State”. Dahiyeh.

Like Aoun’s speech days earlier, Salam said he would work to ensure the withdrawal of Israeli troops “from the last inch of occupied (Lebanese) land” and rebuild areas affected by Israel’s devastating attacks.

“Rebuilding is not only a promise; it is a commitment,” he said.

“He is smart enough to find appropriate ways to achieve inclusivity,” Karim Amir Bitar, professor of international relations at Saint Joseph’s University in Beirut, told Al Jazeera. “I don’t think he will try to exclude Shiite constituencies from participating. Government and nation building, but this is a decision that the Shia parties have to make.”

However, Hezbollah’s situation is precarious. Over the years, Hezbollah and its allies have gained political and military clout enough to block decisions they oppose, such as the formation of a government that does not meet their needs. In one of the most high-profile examples of the group’s power, Hezbollah deployed militants on the streets of Beirut in May 2008 after the Lebanese government ordered the dismantling of the group’s private telecommunications networks, forcing state authorities to change their minds.

but The fall of Assad’s regime in Syria Making it more difficult to receive weapons and eliminating an important regional ally for the group.

arms monopoly

Under the terms of the ceasefire with Israel, Hezbollah is supposed to move north of the Litani River, which cuts through southern Lebanon, from north of Tire in the west to south of Marjayoun in the east, where Lebanese troops will be deployed . After Israel withdrew from Lebanese territory.

Hezbollah says its military infrastructure can only be withdrawn from the south, but Israel has recently attacked targets in northern Litani it says are linked to Hezbollah. However, some officials in Israel and the United States — and even in Lebanon — say Hezbollah’s military infrastructure should be targeted anywhere in Lebanon. This casts doubt on whether all parties have a consistent understanding of the ceasefire.

Both Aoun and Salam spoke of the country’s arms monopoly and its deployment to southern Lebanon, sending a clear message to Hezbollah that its military hegemony may be over.

Whether Hezbollah will accept that is another matter. On Saturday, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naeem Qasim warned that any incoming government must include Hezbollah.

“(No one can) exclude us from effective and influential political participation in Lebanon because we are a fundamental part of the makeup of the country and its revival,” Qassem said. (Israeli) aggression because politics The road is separate from the situation of resistance (to Hezbollah)”.

Lebanon’s new leader has pledged to ensure Israel withdraws every centimeter of southern Lebanon and rebuild destroyed homes and villages, in what analysts see as an effort to lend a helping hand to the Shia community.

Hezbollah faces pressure from the south, Bekaa Valley and Dahiyeh constituencies to rebuild their homes and lives. To do this, analysts say, Lebanon will need international assistance. This could lead Hezbollah to temporarily accept Lebanon’s new political direction.

“Either (Hezbollah) allows for a state-led approach to reconstruction and gets enough legitimacy from (Arab) Gulf donors willing to put in the money, or it’s not going to happen,” executive director Nadim Houry ) said the head of the Arab Reform Initiative.

There are signs that, despite the rhetoric of some, Hezbollah may be willing to pursue a more conciliatory path, at least in the short term.

“It is important to rebuild state institutions, achieve political, financial and economic reforms, implement the ceasefire and follow up on the implementation of the Taif agreement,” Kasir, a political analyst close to Hezbollah, told Al Jazeera. The 1989 agreement aimed at ending 15 years of Lebanese civil war. “The issue of confronting Israel’s enemies is one of the priorities.”

salam new hope

The partnership between Aoun and Salam marks a shift from Lebanon’s traditional political power blocs and the image of some of Salam’s predecessors as billionaire prime ministers, including Saad Hariri and current caretaker Prime Minister Mikati .

Many Lebanese said Salam’s appointment as prime minister would be particularly beneficial for the country and its hopes for reform.

“I’m hopeful,” said Dalal Mawad, a Lebanese journalist and author who considers Salaam a mentor. “He embodies the justice, accountability and rule of law we want to see in Lebanon.”

“What we can say is that Nawaf Salam’s nomination certainly bodes well for the future of Lebanon,” Bitar said. “Most Lebanese are feeling optimistic for the first time in decades, at least since 2019.”

Salaam’s name first began circulating shortly after mass protests broke out on October 17, 2019. Although he comes from a prominent political family, with relatives including former prime ministers Sab Salam and Thaman, he is generally considered to be a prime minister. Salam – does not belong to the traditional political oligarchy.

In his first speech as Prime Minister-designate, Salam talked about building “a modern, civilized and just country.”

He also spoke of achieving “justice, security, progress and opportunity.”

He spoke in particular about seeking justice for the victims of the August 4, 2020, Beirut port explosion and the 2019 banking crisis, when depositors were suddenly deprived of the right to withdraw their funds and no officials or banks were held accountable.

Lebanese media reported on Tuesday that investigations into the bombings disrupted by Hezbollah and other Lebanese political groups will soon resume.

Struggle forward

While many focus on Hezbollah, all of Lebanon’s most powerful parties use the system to evade accountability or block political agendas they oppose.

The next challenge for Aoun and Salam will be to deliver on their statements in the face of a political system built on sectarianism.

Lebanon’s sectarian system “needs new approaches,” Majid said, adding that Lebanon needs a monopoly on violence by state institutions and weapons, as well as “a strategy to protect Lebanon from real hostilities by Israel.”

Under the current sectarian system, Lebanon is governed by a handful of political parties and leaders with entrenched support for and control over state institutions. These leaders, who span Lebanese religious sects, are accused of using these resources and political power to build their patronage networks and hold people accountable to them rather than the state.

These positions of power are deeply entrenched and resistant to change.

“We need fundamental structural changes in Lebanon’s political system, and I don’t know if that’s possible,” Hilal Kashan, a political scientist at the American University of Beirut and a former colleague of Salam’s, told Al Jazeera.

To root out entrenched corruption and clientelism, it is not enough to simply appoint strong or new leaders to positions of power. Salam, for example, is not the first technocrat to play an important role in Lebanon.

“The difference is that in the past, when the political class wanted to stall, technocrats came to power,” Houri said. “They never had any legitimacy, it was down to the political class, so they didn’t have the capacity or support to implement most of the reforms.”

But today, Lebanon’s numerous crises mean that the political class understands that some reforms must be made—even if they may continue to oppose systemic change.

Salam and Aoun must address economic stability, security and national dialogue without isolating any community, while managing foreign relations, including Israeli aggression. The list of problems that need to be solved is long and arduous.

Yet analysts say Salam and Aoun have a unique opportunity. The fall of the Assad regime, continued interference in Lebanese affairs, Iran’s weakening and the international community’s willingness to provide foreign aid and support Lebanon’s new leadership means the reform agenda has unprecedented support there.

Even with the positive conditions, confronting Lebanon’s entrenched and resilient political class remains a difficult task. Many analysts said that while they were positive about Salam’s appointment, they were skeptical that anyone could eradicate the Lebanese political system.

Still, Kashan said Salaam “is the right person for this period.”