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(Bloomberg) — Asian stocks headed for early declines on Monday after strong U.S. jobs data led traders to rethink the path to Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
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Australian and Hong Kong equity futures fell, indicating further pressure on a gauge of the region’s shares that has fallen in the previous three sessions. The market in Japan is closed for a Monday holiday. US stocks and Treasuries fell after Friday’s report, with the S&P 500 falling 1.5% and the Nasdaq 100 losing 1.6%. The 10-year yield closed seven basis points higher at 4.76%, a level not seen since 2023.
Bond yields in Australia and New Zealand also rose early Monday. The dollar traded within tight ranges after strengthening against most major currencies on Friday, pushing an index of greenback strength to a two-year high. The yen was an outlier, recovering a recent slide against the dollar after signs that Bank of Japan officials are likely to discuss raising their inflation outlook at a policy meeting in late January.
The sell-off in stocks and the dollar’s renewed strength reflect the caution that has marked the first few weeks of the year, as traders remain uncertain about the pace of Federal Reserve cuts and inflation.
Elsewhere, options traders are bracing for the pound to fall by as much as 8% as fiscal woes that led to a painful sell-off in UK markets last week weigh on the currency.
In Asia, the set of data to be released on Monday includes December trade data for China and inflation for India. Separate figures on China’s December money supply may also be released anytime until January 15.
China’s economic data will offer investors further evidence of the challenges facing the world’s second-largest economy. Chinese shares are facing their worst start to the year since 2016 after falling more than 5% in the first seven trading sessions of 2025.
Strong works
Investors will turn their attention to signs of US inflation in data coming out this week, with the consumer price index report out on Wednesday. They will also be watching the New York Fed’s one-year inflation expectations on Monday, producer prices on Tuesday and jobless claims on Thursday.
The data will provide more clarity on the US economy after Friday’s non-farm payrolls figures. US employment in December advanced the most in nine months and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, capping another year of labor market resilience. The data supported the idea that US rates could remain on hold for the foreseeable future, an outlook suggested by a handful of Fed officials over the past week.
After Friday’s jobs data, economists at some major banks revised their forecasts for additional rate cuts from the Fed.
Bank of America Corp., which previously expected cuts of two-quarters of a point this year, no longer expects one, and said there is a risk the next move will be a hike. Citigroup Inc., whose outlook for rate cuts is one of the most hopeful on Wall Street, is still looking for cuts of five-quarters of a point, but says they will start in May. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees two cuts this year versus three.
“Investors may want to brace for more volatility as the market recalibrates expectations of fewer cuts,” said Gina Bolvin of Bolvin Wealth Management Group.
In corporate news, Johnson & Johnson is exploring a bid to acquire Intra-Cellular Therapies Inc., people familiar with the matter said. Bain Capital sweetened its bid for Australia’s Insignia Financial Ltd as takeover activity heats up for the wealth manager.
Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase & Co. said tariffs, if used correctly, can help solve problems like unfair competition and national security.
In commodities, oil settled to a three-month high on Friday as the US increased sanctions against Russia, adding to a series of bullish developments that have pushed crude to a strong start 2025.
Key events this week:
China trade, Monday
India CPI, Monday
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane and Governing Council member Olli Rehn speak in Hong Kong on Monday
Argentina CPI, Tuesday
US PPI, Tuesday
New York Fed President John Williams speaks on Tuesday
Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino speaks on Tuesday
Euro zone industrial production, Wednesday
CPI of France, Wednesday
UK CPI, Wednesday
US CPI, Wednesday
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speak on Wednesday
Francois Villeroy de Galhau, member of the Governing Council of the ECB, speaks this Wednesday
Australian unemployment, Thursday
German CPI, Thursday
Trade of Italy, CPI, Thursday
Poland rates decision, Thursday
South Korean rate decision on Thursday
UK Industrial Production, Thursday
Initial US Jobless Claims, Retail Sales, Import Prices, Thursday
Bank of America, Morgan Stanley earnings on Thursday
TSMC earnings, Thursday
China GDP, housing prices, retail sales, industrial production, Friday
Euro zone CPI, Friday
US housing starts, industrial production, Friday
Some of the main movements in the markets:
stocks
coins
The euro was little changed at $1.0241
The Japanese yen was little changed at 157.81 per dollar
The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.3619 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 0.5% to $93,904.01
Ether fell 0.8% to $3,239.84
good ones
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
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