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In an early interview as the US Treasury Secretary in February, Scott Bossnt explained that financial fruits, were the metrics of government that Donald Trump was more appreciated.

While he didn’t explain why, it wasn’t difficult to guess. US BOIDS yields set the price for new mortgages. They determine the price and available finance for most US company borrowing. And, perhaps the most important of the trumpet, bond markets hold the government’s purse strings.

Since the interview, US stocks pump – at 13 percent in the middle of the morning Friday in New York. Equity markets hate uncertainty and have no shortage of Donald Trump’s return to the White House. The tarff flip-flopping, public work cuts amid government policy and a wider attack of multilateralism of economic sight. But bond prices have been raised, which means that the yields fall.

In the context of weak global bond markets, it is impressive. British, French and German ten-year-old government’s harvest risen at the same time. American Prompetalism lives in their bond market, if not crossed by their new indexes of equity with justification.

In addition, this extralism occurred despite the higher inflation expectations and a more concern for the debt trajectory – the traditional bogeymen in bond markets. Since Bossent’s interview, both private economists in the sector and market equal changes their forecasts for US inflation. And Nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office not only expected to increase federal debt level, but also increased the expected federal disabilities.

In addition, there are many market chattles in a so-called Accordar with Mar-A-Loo involving what is effective to be a compulsory exchange of treasury bonds at America’s allies. The idea is discussed with a report Stephen Miraran wrote before he became the seat of the Trump council with economic advisors. When asked about the idea last week, Miran only says Trump’s focus is on tariffs. We don’t know what $ 3.8TN in US Treasury Holdings marked as foreign official holdings, but discussing an exchange of debt is never motivated to add more.

And yet, despite the increase in inflation expectations, the burden of government debt and the talk of an exchange of debt, the US market has no time in Liz Trus.

What is the meaning of strength in US government bonds? Well, provide refusal accompanied by news that administrations are likely to be feared and bond markets are likely to disappear: the leading signs of the economy fall on a cliff. This is because bad economic news has a preliminary cut in a short amount of interest, which makes bundles with more valuable. And they bet that a weak economy will beat the increase in calculus calculus prices in the federal reserve of the federal reserve at the federal rate.

The collapse of leading signs can be found in most self-inflicted. The so-called “soft data” series “is like consumer trust surveys and asserting the managers regarding the economy. The bundle looks good for the signs that the most powerful economic data begins to follow the soft data in the south.

In a short-end letter “there is blood” on Friday, JPMorgan raises its risk at risk of shrinking the world by 30 percent when the tariff increase is maintained. Since Bossent’s February interview, the bond market price of nearly three additional rate cuts on Fed.

Given the dominant paper to the global commerce dollar, treasury bonds also have a special place not only in the financial prumbing, but also on the world’s financial sheets, but also the balancings of the world. It is credited, the US economy should be slowly slowly, pigs can cut rates and the government can cover income disadvantages in increased bundlings. And many needs for treasury arrives until the US remains the money hegemony.

Traders cannot be imagined that the administration can watch as a dollar reserar status by creating the poercive exchange idea. Or at least they don’t want to pricing it. The loss of this is called many privilege is harmful. In addition, these losses may separate the American beaches that have been given the world’s financial system. So – perhaps ironically – investors seeking hidden from the damage made by US tariffs continue to find it in government bonds. At least now.

“The Wall Street, where you and I come from, I have done this big”, trained told his interviewer. “Under this administration, it is the turn of the main road”. Bond markets are betting that the Trump administration involves an act of self-harm. If it’s right, Main Street should wait.