Investing.com – the debate on whether Tiktok is banned in the United States has reached a critical juncture, with the stakes increasing for the popular video platform.

The US Supreme Court recently upheld a law requiring Tiktok to divest from its Chinese parent company, affiliate, or face US operations.

While this ruling is important, the situation remains uncertain due to the complex interpretation of legal, political, and corporate factors.

Like every analyst at MOFFETT NATNANSON, the possibilities of a Tiktok ban are not as straightforward as they appear.

Prediction markets such as Polymarket put the probability at 80%, reflecting a sentiment fueled by National Security concerns.

However, other factors complicate the picture. President-Administration Donald Trump expressed the measure, which may have signed a more attractive approach from the future administration.

In December, Trump requested a stay on the implementation of the Law to explore alternatives, although this effort was sparked by the King of the Supreme Court.

If a ban is maintained, its enforcement mechanisms will depend on the main players in the Tech Ecosystem such as Apple Store Operator (Nasdaq 🙂 and Google (Nasdaq 🙂 and Internet Services Services).

Both Apple and Google are expected to comply by removing Tiktok from their platforms, providing it is inaccessible to new users.

Even for existing users, the app may be down for a long time as ISPS and service providers stop support for updates and maintenance.

Reports from the leak suggest that the company may shut down Tiktok operations completely if the ban is upheld.

Despite the potential consequences, Moffett Nathanson emphasized the fluidity of the situation.

The future administration may issue an executive order that ends the ban or even seeks to satisfy the law completely.

Tiktok executives appear to share this optimism, with confidence that any disruptions will be temporary. This scenario leaves room for the platform to change, possibly after a divestiture or sale.

For competitors like Meta (Nasdaq 🙂 and YouTube, a Tiktok Ban could be opportunities.

Meta’s Instagram shorts and YouTube shorts are well positioned to absorb migrating users and advertisers, which can increase their revenues by 3-5% and 10-15%.

Snapchat, while less equipped with short video formats, can still benefit by getting some of Tiktok’s younger users, especially the younger demographic.

However, the market’s initial reaction to the Supreme Court ruling suggests skepticism about the existence of a ban.

Stocks for Meta and Snap fell shortly after the announcement, reflecting broader uncertainty over how long Tiktok’s absence will last and whether competitors will meaningfully benefit. This reaction may be a part of the sequence that lies ahead in this Saga block.