N’Djamena, Chad – Chad’s capital remains painful deadly shootout Clashes broke out between security forces and more than a dozen armed fighters who stormed the presidential palace on Wednesday night. At least 19 people died.

Businesses and schools were open as usual on Thursday and most people went to work, but security was heightened on the streets of N’Djamena – the city was already swarming with soldiers. Military tanks dotted the city center and roads leading to the palace complex were blocked.

The attack occurred just weeks after the controversy parliamentary electionsin which the opposition parties boycotted the vote. They accuse President Mohamed Idriss Deby’s militarized civilian government of trying to legitimize its rule.

The attack also comes on the heels of a surprising incident involving Chad expel In December, hundreds of French soldiers. France, a former colonial power and close ally, has operated military bases in the country for decades.

Conflicting reports about who Wednesday’s attacker might have been circulating on social media, adding to confusion as government officials tried to downplay the threat. Here’s what we know:

what happened?

Speaking on Chadian state television, Abderaman Koulamallah, Chadian government spokesman and foreign minister, said that at around 8:45pm (19:45GMT) on Wednesday, a group of 24 Heavily armed men attacked the presidential office.

He said the men were carrying knives, not guns. At least 18 attackers were killed in the ensuing gunbattle, and a member of Chadian security forces also died. Three other security officials were injured, two of them seriously, the minister added.

Video after the shooting showed a bloodied body on the floor near a white pickup truck. Kuramala said the attacker was shot dead after successfully breaking into the camp surrounding the presidential palace.

“I am very impressed by the military deployment. We have a very good army and Chadians can rest easy. Our country is very well-defended,” he said.

President Deby was in the presidential palace when the attack occurred. A few hours ago, Deby met at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who was on a state visit to the country.

At least six people have been arrested in connection with the attack, but it’s unclear who they are. The minister said investigations are ongoing.

Why is the country nervous?

The landlocked Central African country has long experienced instability in the form of rebel movements, armed groups and coups. Despite its rich oil resources, Chad’s stagnant economy and harsh climate have ranked it among Africa’s poorest countries.

Ulf Laessing, head of the Sahel program at the German think tank Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS), told Al Jazeera that those who seize power often do so by recruiting former rebels and members of the political opposition. Assign work in an effort to quell the rebellion. “Chad’s budget is spent on sponsorship to ensure the government’s survival,” he said.

Deby was a military general who seized power in April 2021 after rebels killed his father, Idriss Deby Itno, the strongman president, on the battlefield. Before his death, the elder Deby ruled Chad with an iron fist for 30 years.

Despite the junta’s election promises and its fulfillment, Deby Jr.’s tenure was marked by turmoil. He has struggled to attract popular support at home, as many see his unconstitutional seizure of power as merely perpetuating the Deby dynasty. Experts say his government decided to expel French troops in December as a way to gain support. widespread anti-French sentiment Former West and Central African Colonies.

Deby’s government has also been accused of repression: In October 2022, security forces cracked down on young people and opposition parties after they took to the streets to protest against the postponement of promised elections, killing 128 people and arresting many more.

May 2024, Derby swept the presidential election, It won more than 60% of the vote, angering opposition groups who called the event fraudulent.

In December, the country held its first disputed parliamentary elections since 2015. While government officials hailed the vote as a key step toward ending military rule, turnout was low and the opposition alleged fraud. Several political parties boycotted the vote.

Who attacked? What did the authorities say?

There are several conflicting theories about who may be responsible for Wednesday’s attack. Some blame the armed group Boko Haram, while others believe it could be a military coup.

Boko Haram militants have invaded the country since 2013, operating out of the Lake Chad basin, which Chad shares with Nigeria, Niger and Cameroon.

Although the organization was originally founded in Nigeria, porous borders have allowed it to expand its operations. In 2015, Boko Haram suicide bombers launched a series of attacks against police buildings and markets in N’Djamena. More than 50 people died and more than 100 people were injured.

Security sources told AFP and Reuters that Wednesday’s attack was likely the work of the group.

Beverly Ochieng, a Senegal-based security analyst at intelligence firm Control Risks, told Al Jazeera: “It’s not far-fetched that Boko Haram would try this, even though it’s a huge security breach at the palace.”

“They may want to retaliate against Operation Haskar,” she added, referring to the security operation launched by President Deby himself in October. The aim was to track down and neutralize hundreds of Boko Haram militants who attacked and killed more than 40 Chadian troops in the Lake Chad Basin region on October 28.

However, government officials have downplayed Boko Haram’s theory. Hours after the attack, Chadian spokesman Kouramala told Chadian state broadcaster the attacker “probably was not” a member of Boko Haram or part of an organized armed group. He described them as drunken “Pieds Nickeles” – a reference to a French comic featuring hapless con men.

But a random pair of crooks would find it difficult to attack the center of power in N’Djamena. The city is crowded every day with camouflage-clad, gun-toting soldiers hanging from military trucks.

Could it be other armed groups?

Several other armed groups threaten Chad’s stability, notably the rebel fighters of the Chadian Front for Change and the Front for Harmony. (fact)located near the Libyan border.

The group, led by longtime rebel Mohamed Mahathir Ali, aims to overthrow the Chadian government under Déby.

late president deby died of injuries In 2021, the rebels advanced towards N’Djamena and suffered in the fighting against the rebels.

At the time, FACT vowed to strike again if the younger Deby came to power. “Chad is not a monarchy,” the group said in a statement posted online. “Dynastic devolution is not possible in our country,” the statement added. FACT threatened to depose the new leader.

On the other hand, Ochin said reports of a coup could also be credible.

She added that Wednesday’s attack could have been an “inside job” aimed at “assassinating President Deby” and seizing power.

Coups are not uncommon in Chad. The late Deby seized power by deposing dictator Hussein Habré.

In 2008, thousands of fighters from the rebel group Union of Forces for Democracy and Development (UFDD), led by leader Mohamed Nouri, attacked N’Djamena to overthrow Deby, but were repulsed.

Did the French withdrawal create a vacuum?

Analysts say Chad may face more similar attacks. As French troops continue to withdraw from the country, armed groups may try to exploit a possible security vacuum.

Although Chad signed an agreement with Hungary in October and is expected to welcome 200 Hungarian soldiers to support and train the local army, it is unclear when the Hungarians will arrive.

Lessing said Chad was in a “vulnerable” state. “Deby’s decision to ask the French to leave in December was a gamble. It increased his profile,” he said. “But clearly the French military is the main regime protection he has, not only because of their troop presence but also because of intelligence sharing.”

former french colony Home of France’s last military base in the Sahel but terminated a defense and security agreement with Paris at the end of November, calling it “obsolete”. About 1,000 French military personnel are stationed in the country, which follows France’s disputes with three other Sahel countries – Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger – which are ruled by military juntas hostile to Paris.

Ochieng said the fact that Chad was downplaying Boko Haram attacks could mean some officials could blame outside actors for undermining their efforts.

“I suspect there will be opportunistic groups trying to make it look like France is sabotaging Chad,” she said. “We saw similar claims in Niger and Burkina Faso after coups and calls for French troops to leave.”