China’s December trade data significantly beat expectations as exporters continued to bring forward shipments as concerns about additional tariffs grew, while China’s stimulus measures appeared to have begun to support domestic consumption.

China’s export data shows that exports increased by 10.7% year-on-year in December Customs authorities showed on Mondayexceeding the 7.3% growth forecast in a Reuters survey. That compares with a 6.7% increase in November and a 12.7% surge in October.

Customs data showed that import volume increased by 1.0% year-on-year last month, reversing the contraction in the previous two months.

Analysts had predicted that imports would fall by 1.5% year-on-year. This is related to a The decline was even greater in November, reaching 3.9% and Growth in October was 2.3%.

Last year, China’s total exports denominated in RMB increased by 7.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate accelerated compared with the previous year. Moderate growth of 0.6% in 2023Customs officials said at a news conference on Monday.

China’s imports grew by 2.3% last year Decrease 0.3% in 2023.

“We believe increased fiscal spending, much of which is likely to remain focused on investment, will drive construction activity and boost demand for industrial commodities in the coming months,” said Huang Zichun, China economist at Capital Economics. ”

The protracted housing crisis has hit domestic demand and made the country more reliant on exports to fuel its growth.

Economists expect trade Strong support for China’s economic growth last year. GDP data will be released later this week.

Exports have been a rare bright spot in China’s battered economy amid rising trade tensions with major trading partners including the United States and the European Union, but the growth is likely to come as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House will be damaged.

Exports of electric vehicles and semiconductors Growth rates were 13.1% and 18.7% respectively last year.According to customs officials.

Trump, who takes office on January 20, has raised concerns about higher tariffs on Chinese exports. he has Commitment to impose an additional 10% tariff All Chinese goods entering the United States

As economic growth slows and social tensions rise, Chinese authorities have stepped up policy support since late September to prop up the country’s economy. But Teneo managing director Gabriel Wildau said in a note on Friday that “an attitude of caution and restraint remains.”

China has Lower policy ratesrelease Property purchase restrictionsinjecting liquidity into financial markets Announcement of debt swap plan Ease local government financial pressure.

Wildau added: “While top leaders recognize the need to boost real GDP growth, Xi Jinping appears unwilling to accept the additional stimulus needed to combat deflation.”

“Policymakers need to be prepared for some stimulus measures so that they can respond adequately if the impact of tariffs is severe,” he said. Uncertainty about export growth provided a way for Beijing to avoid “big bang” measures, he said. Stimulus measures” provide another reason.

Among a series of key economic data released this week, China will release full-year and fourth-quarter GDP data on Friday. According to a Reuters survey, year-on-year growth in the last quarter of 2024 is expected to be 5.1%.

This year, top leadership pledged to vigorously promote Domestic consumption is priority At the same time, fiscal expenditures will be expanded to provide funds for consumer goods trade-in and equipment upgrade policies. Launched in July last yearthe trade-in program subsidizes consumers Replace old cars or appliances And buy new ones at discounted prices.

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