HONG KONG (Reuters) – China’s population will fall for a third consecutive year in 2024, with the number of deaths outstripping a slight increase in births, and experts warn that the trend will accelerate in the coming years. years.

The National Bureau of Statistics said the total number of people in China will decrease by 1.39 million to 1.408 billion in 2024, compared to 1.409 billion in 2023.

Friday’s data reinforced concerns that the world’s second-largest economy will struggle as the number of workers and consumers shrinks. Rising costs from aged care and retirement benefits are also likely to create additional strains for already indebted local governments.

The total number of births in China will be 9.54 million compared to 9.02 million in 2023, the statistics bureau said. The birth rate increased to 6.77 births per 1,000 people in 2024 compared to 6.39 per 1,000 people in 2023.

The number of deaths will be 10.93 million in 2024 from 11.1 million in 2023.

China’s birth rate has been declining for decades due to the one-child policy implemented in China from 1980 to 2015 as well as rapid urbanization.

Like neighboring Japan and South Korea, many Chinese are moving from the countryside to the cities, where having children is more expensive.

The high cost of childcare and education as well as job insecurity and a sluggish economy have also discouraged many young Chinese from marrying and starting a family.

Gender discrimination and traditional expectations for women to take care of the home exacerbate the issue, demographers say.

“Much of China’s population decline is rooted in entrenched structural factors: Without fundamental structural change – from improving the social safety net to eliminating gender discrimination – the decline trend in the population is irreversible,” said Yun Zhou, an assistant professor of sociology at the University of Michigan.

A 12.4% increase in marriages in 2023 – many delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic – accounts for the rebound in births in 2024, demographers said, but the number is expected to fall again in 2025.

Marriages are a leading indicator of the birth rate in China, where many single women cannot access child-rearing benefits.

Authorities unveiled a series of measures in 2024 to boost China’s birth rate.

In December they urged colleges and universities to integrate marriage and “love education” into their curricula to emphasize positive views of marriage, love, fertility and family.

Last November, the state council, or cabinet, rallied local governments to direct resources to fix China’s population crisis and spread respect for childbirth and marriage “at the right age”.

The number of Chinese women of reproductive age, defined by the United Nations as 15-to-49, is set to drop by more than two-thirds to less than 100 million by the end of the century.

The retirement age population, meanwhile, those aged 60 and over, is expected to increase to more than 400 million by 2035 from around 280 million people today.

The state-run Chinese Academy of Sciences says the pension system will run out of funds by 2035.

About 22% of China’s population, or 310.31 million people, will be aged 60 or over in 2024, against 296.97 million in 2023, the data showed.

Urbanization also increased with the number of people living in cities increasing by 10.83 million to 943.3 million. The rural population, on the other hand, decreased to 464.78 million.