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The Chinese flag flutters on a ship near a transport container at Yangshan Port on February 7, 2025, in the suburb of Shanghai, China.
Go to nakamura | Reuters
Beijing – According to Big China analysts, China’s response to new U.S. tariffs could focus on domestic stimulus and strengthen ties with trading partners.
How many hours does the US president Donald Trump China’s Ministry of Commerce announces 34% tariffs on China Calls on the United States to cancel tariffsAnd vowed to unspecified countermeasures. this Scan the U.S. Policy It also beats new responsibilities to the EU and major Asian countries.
China’s exports to the U.S. have been subject to additional tariffs of 20% this year, increasing the overall rate of Chinese freight To 54%the highest levy collected by the Trump administration. The effective rate of a single product line may vary.
But, like this, China Statement It is a call for negotiation.
“I think the focus of China’s recent reaction is not retaliation against tariffs or such measures,” said Bruce Pang, an associate associate professor at Cuhk Business School. This is based on the CNBC translation of the Chinese statement.
Instead, Pang hopes China will focus on improving its economy through diversified export destinations and products and double its priorities. Promote domestic consumption.
Since September, China has been the world’s second largest economy, strengthening its stimulus efforts by expanding its fiscal deficit, increasing consumer-style subsidy programs and calling for a halt to inadequate real estate. It is worth noting that Chinese President Xi Jinping held a rare meeting with tech entrepreneurs Alibaba February founder Jack MA is backed by support from the private sector.
Macquarie’s chief Chinese economist Larry Hu said in a report that the policy reversal (starting from the regulatory tightening in recent years) reflects how Beijing’s chief Chinese economist Larry Hu said in a report ahead of Trump’s latest tariff announcement that Beijing “expects an imminent slowdown or even a collapse in exports.” He noted that the export boom caused by the pandemic has been launched in 2021 “Sponsoring a large-scale regulatory campaign.”
“My view remains the same,” Hu said in an email on Thursday. “Beijing will use domestic stimulus to offset the impact of tariffs so that they can still achieve their ‘5% growth target.”
Hu also expects Beijing will focus on still using the blacklist, controlling exports of key minerals and investigating foreign companies in China, rather than retaliatory tariffs. Hu also expects China to make the yuan against the dollar and resist calls from retailers to lower prices – as a way to push inflationary pressure to the United States
In early March, China’s top leaders announced that they would pursue a target of about 5% GDP growth this year, and the task they emphasized would requireVery difficult work“To be realized. The Ministry of Finance also hinted that If necessary, increase financial support.
According to Goldman Sachs, about 20% of China’s economy relies on exports. They previously estimated that the new U.S. tariffs on China by about 60% will reduce real GDP by about 2 percentage points by about 2 percentage points. The company still maintains its forecast of 4.5% growth in full year GDP.
Change global trade
Unlike the impact of tariffs under Trump’s first term, China is not the only goal, but a series of countries exporting to the United States, such as Vietnam and Thailand, which were once the alternative routes for Chinese goods to reach the United States.
At the Chinese export hub on Thursday, businesses seem to be cold on the impact of new U.S. tariffs because their perception is that they Cameron Johnson, a senior partner at Shanghai at consulting firm Tidalwave Solutions, said overseas competitors would not gain an advantage.
He noted that previously, the United States had focused its trade indicators on forcing companies to evacuate China from the supply chain and travel to other countries. But Chinese manufacturers have expanded overseas with this diversification, he said.
“The reality is that (the new U.S. tariff policy) essentially gives much of Asia and Africa to China, and the United States is not prepared,” Johnson said. He expects that China will not make it unnecessary difficult for U.S. businesses operating in the country to work harder, but will work harder to build other trade relations.
Since Trump’s first four-year term ended in early 2021, China has increased its trade with Southeast Asia, so much so that the region is now Beijing’s largest trading partner, followed by the EU and then the US
Ten member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Countries (ASEAN) form the world’s largest free trade group together with China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand – Regional Integrated Economic Partnership (RCEP) – Appeared in early 2022. The United States and India are not members of the RCEP.
“RCEP member states will naturally deepen trade relations,” Yue Su, chief economist of China, said in a report on Thursday.
“Given the government’s firm commitment to its growth targets and the desire to take fiscal policy measures when needed, this is also partly because China’s economy may remain the most stable in relative terms, or at least in the most stable,” she said.
There is still uncertainty
As Trump generally uses his duties as a negotiation strategy, especially with China, the extent to which all countries have been hit by tariffs this week remains uncertain.
He said the U.S. could lower tariffs on China last week to help close Beijing’s deal Selling Tiktok’s US business.
But China’s new tariff level is Worse than many investors expected.
“Unlike some optimistic market forecasts, we will not expect large-scale bilateral bargains between the U.S. and China,” Nomura’s chief Chinese economist Ting Lu said in a note on Thursday.
“We expect tensions between the two large economies to worsen significantly, especially as China makes great progress in high-tech fields including AI and robotics,” he said.
