Hard top top last week without a recorded “liberation day” for extraordinary drama, but as an objection President Donald Trump blamed on the left and bent cause a thorough crash on the market. Any prophecy I can do now is hostage in markets – need to have some level where he’s back-back – but there’s a lot of momentum on the back of his ranking idiocy.

Many people asked if I was amazed at what he announced Wednesday. The answer: Yes and no. I don’t have an idea to use the administration as a crazy formula to calculate the “tariff” tariffs, but some kind of unavoid. I predicted before the election There is a chaos because Trump promises “at least five sometimes contradictory or directly impossible policies”.

In the present newsletter I look at what is next to come in short, medium and long term, or at least what to watch. Transferred waterthat examines the data behind the world trade, is the last week’s market reaction to the tariff notice. And now the first reader question for a moment: when do you think tariffs last? Answers to me at Alan.beattie@ft.com.

In the short term

Despite Past Performance, I have no Crystal Ball and I’ve already been wrong on one big thing, the size of China’s retaliation to Trump’s “Liberation Day” Tariffs. But here’s my guide what looks, with some unclear guys thrown.

Take ahead of danger

What can Trump be put from precede these tariffs and add more than the next few weeks? Real giant falls in equity markets or industry lines clearly halted, in my mind. But I think it should be a decision he takes himself, not someone who is reasonable to attract him. There was a chatter about Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenst, which was once worn as the sound of financial markets, Leaving administration – Although Dorothy Parker says about Calvin Coolgidge’s death, how do they speak? None of the Trump officials might advise against tariffs that can convince him.

Business lobbies usually have no bush stand to him and I doubt he will suddenly listen to them today unless he is independent to observe and understand the chaos of economics. Neither the contradictions of his trade policy are discussed. There is an open DISPUTES About if “Freedom Day” tariffs can be negotiable or not. There are some talk that the 10 percent “baseline” tariff is permanent and stay there for the purposes of income exaggeration, but it is viously bad that the said tariff (or actually any tariff) can make an important federal financial contribution. In terms of policy consolidation, we where we were five months ago.

Hit the back or create an agreement

China decided to hit the larger generally (including me) expected, even maybe Give it more Leverage to agree to an agreement. Meanwhile, the EU signs revenge and is not in the case for major concessions. The economies are very dependent on exporting US – VietnamCambodia, and on a small scale J’Tan and South Korea – Hurting approval what would be a partial deal. So Javier Mercy in Argentinafor additional ideological reasons. .

Otherwise the reaction is more muted. Some countries (Brazil, UK) that is not affected. Many deals do not have much effect on US export or manufacture. In spite of most recent stream of consciousness From Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, which has not been allowed to tour TV Studio, the US does not gather on iPhones and send it to Vietnam. See below for possible impact on world trading system in such deals.

Congress and the courts are a long shot

I remain skeptical that other two branches of government have a lot to do to prevent it and many tariffs come. The lawmakers of the Republican legislators clearly concern about markets, but the trump is very small. Mike Johnson, speaker of the house of representatives, actually acts on Reduce the influence of Congress to tariffs. A Senate step last week to prevent emergency conditions Trump used as justice of his tariffs attracting a weak four votes of republic and remained miles short of two-thirds necessary to overcome video veto. One of the votes was Mitch McConnell, the former leader of the majority of the Senate with a slight resistance on Trump’s agenda and flowed to midterms. (There is no bold and principle as a US senator retirement.) As for the courts, there are cases already filed against his use of international emergency economic power, and Some more famous scholars argue They should have a chance. But the instinct of judicial recovery of the President’s executive authority of the National Security Turter is a Very loudly.

In line

Get Tech Bros in case of pressure

If Trump knew his tariffs not working to force other countries like his wish, the satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite satellite for today The economies appeared in podcast (the transcript HERE), I interviewed the political professor of Georgetown Poliby Abraham Abraham Newman with a trust trust. (See also his Piece of foreign activities Henry Farrell wrote if US tech companies disappear in a transatlantic digital war, and he ROLE With the European Council of foreign relations with foreign relations with how Europe’s preparation of Geeconomic.) It is interesting that the rival of Europe, Starlink, strong expansion of fast and delivering thousands of new internet terminals in Ukraine. I just made an observation: The Biden administration made ongoing and determined efforts to use these tools, yet they did not prevent the development of technological technological warfare in Ukraine.

The distant rumble of money war

It is understood that governments are concerned that different trades from the US market will leave a large amount of cheap washings in the world trade world. They may have several anti-dumping duties, raised in imports from China after Beijing is infinitely returned to the export-motivated model. In the last couple of decades, it has always resulted in a currency war while everyone is trying to prevent their competition method. We would have been going to come back there. . HERE. Something to notice: It’s not the same environment as competitive money claim in the 1930s. The main issue then the global global financial policy is extremely tight because of the basis of gold. That is, thank God, a problem we don’t have.

Beyond the horizon

The end of an era in trading?

The big, long-term question: What does the world trading system look like? The Watchtower thing is when Vietnamic deals and others who make the US end up to destroy the best trading organization by providing special treatment in the world. I am poorly optimistic one of them. Label these deals as preferred trading agreements (which is a bit dodgy under the WTO rules about), know that many are unable to produce a lot of exports in the US however and continue. I struck it, if any, rely on the multuratic system, especially in the open trade economies such as South-East Asian countries. If countries seek for a framework of international trade law, it is given to WTO. Unfortunately, I don’t see the many signs that India stops playing the paper of its spoiler and paralyzing the negotiating part of the WTO system).

Transferred water

Usually everyone will be lost except for two things (the euro and the yen) by definition cannot be lower if the dollar is (what it is (what it is).

Links to the store

• FT is looking to trust in Sports Shoice Supply Chain in Vietnam production.

• Favorite secret vertical “Big Sam” Lowe in his most favored Newsletter in Novied News Winning on the lap. In November, he designed a “simple and sluggish” (Sam’s words) that predicted what Trump would do. It turns out more sophisticated than the one used in the white house.

• That deals where, some estimates entered the calculation of that incredible bone Tarff Form REJECTED by academics that make them. Oops.

• Ruchir sharma, head to Rockefeller International, reasoned that the federal reserve should not save the US economy from Trump’s tariffs.

• The Wall Street Journal Watching The effect of michigan tariffs, one of the states they need to help.

Trade secretes edited by Harvey Nipia