Experts warn that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement on most trading partners, including several in Africa, will affect businesses and people across the continent and may force more producers to trade with China.

Trump’s “Liberation Day” manifesto on Wednesday Throw the market into chaosas the U.S.’s largest trade policy since the 1930s turned to trade protectionist policies, weakened the global trade system that the U.S. helped to establish and strengthen.

tariff, These include benchmarks, universal responsibilities for all U.S. import measures and additional tariffs on “worst criminals” countries like Nigeria and South Africa could also cover a decades-long open trade agreement that has left African manufacturers with exporting goods to the U.S. tax-free and considered commendable for creating hundreds of thousands of jobs.

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) framework was established in 2000 and helps expand exports of textiles, steel and agricultural products on the continent, as well as other frameworks.

Analysts say the AGOA will renew its signature for the second time this year, but it may now be harmed by the Trump trade war.

Here is about how African countries can strike and the possibilities that may affect:

Which African countries have been hit?

Africa’s largest economies, Nigeria (14%) and South Africa (31%), are those on Trump’s “reciprocal” tariff list, that is, the president says “not treating us well.”

According to Washington, that includes those who impose high tariffs on U.S. goods or introduce other barriers to U.S. trade. These tariffs will come into effect on April 9, while general tariffs will begin on April 5.

Southern African countries have suffered severe blows. Lesotho is a small southern African country that Trump “no one heard” last month Maximum tariff rate 50%. The country bears the second highest HIV burden for anyone else in the world, but is still ridding the shock of Trump’s earlier cuts of aid, which has put HIV response efforts across the region in a difficult situation.

Other southern African countries hit the mark: Madagascar (47%); Mauritius (40%); Botswana (37%); and Angola (32%).

South Africa was also earlier affected by a 25% tariff on all foreign-made cars that went into effect this week. South Africa exports cars and $20 billion worth of parts to the United States under the AGOA framework, according to the country’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Competition.

Here is a 10% tariff imposed on other African countries:

• Algeria – 30%
• Cameroon – 12%
• Chad – 13%
• Democratic Republic of the Congo – 11%
• Equatorial Guinea – 13%
• Ivory Coast – 21%
• Libya – 31%
• Malawi – 18%
• Mozambique – 16 piercings
• Namibia – 21%
• Tunisia – 28%
• Zambia – 17%
• Zimbabwe – 18%

What did the African government say?

In recent weeks, a series of controversial governments with Washington were the first to respond to tariff hikes.

In a statement Thursday, the presidential office of Cyril Ramaphosa called the country’s tariffs “punitive” and added that they would “become a barrier to trade and common prosperity.” The government also promised to seek remedies with Washington.

The president stated that he was concerned about the newly imposed tariffs imposed by South Africa to the United States of America (USA). https://t.co/y3ygjd7ecp

– President (@presidencyza) April 3, 2025

“Tariff recognition is urgency to negotiate a new bilateral and mutually beneficial trade agreement with the United States, which is an important step in ensuring long-term trade certainty,” the statement said.

According to the U.S. government, South Africa charges 60% tariffs on U.S. goods, while Lesotho charges 99% fees. The White House claims Madagascar imposes 93% tariffs on U.S. goods, Mauritius (80%).

Born in South Africa, Trump and his close ally Elon Musk criticized South Africa’s agrarian reform policies, claiming to discriminate against white minorities in the country. Trump also provided citizenship to white South Africans. “There’s something bad happened there,” Trump said Wednesday during his announcement.

How will tariffs affect AGOA?

Experts say tariffs will maximize the impact of African economies that rely on U.S. trade and they will effectively cover forward privilege. Currently, 32 African countries are eligible to participate in the program. The state can and has been eliminated, such as Niger and Gabon, who lost their welfare after the military coup.

The AGOA will expire in September and authorizes tax exemption to obtain more than 1,800 products from eligible sub-Saharan African countries and has formed a backbone of US Africa’s trade policy for 25 years. It was renewed for 10 years in 2015. Mauritius’ chocolate and basket weaving materials, Mali’s musical instruments and Mozambique’s nuts are products that arrive in the US by AGOA.

While it is still in operation, it is unclear whether the Trump administration will renew it again. Of course, Cheta Nwanze, chief partner of Lagos-based risk analysis firm SBM Intelligence, told Al Jazeera that, of course, Trump’s tariff announcement “set it as a road to death.”

“African countries are not known for their firm geopolitical stance, so many will try to stick to AGOA, which means it will go into zombie mode rather than death,” he said.

Economists have been opening the U.S. market to African manufacturers for years to the program, although critics say its strict production and packaging requirements often favor larger economies. Kenya’s AGOA sales (mainly textiles and clothing) rose from $55 million in 2001 to $603 million in 2022.

Which countries will be affected the most?

South Africa and Nigeria are the largest trading partners on the US mainland. South Africa mainly exports precious stones, steel products and cars (mainly from BMW in South Africa). Nigeria exports crude oil and other petroleum products. In return, the United States exports crude oil, electrical supplies and aircraft to South Africa, mainly Nigeria’s vehicles and machinery.

Ghana (cocoa and crude oil), Ethiopia (coffee) and Kenya (textiles, tea) also record a large amount of trade with the United States every year under the AGOA. Although not listed as a “criminal”, these countries face a general tariff of 10%.

Analysts say heavier tariffs can have different but largely negative effects on African manufacturers and can lead to increased cost of living and losses affecting the work of ordinary people.

“The increase in export costs will reduce competitiveness, potentially reduce income and destabilize a stable economy,” SBM Intelligence’s Nwanze told Al Jazeera.

He added that areas such as agriculture and mineral extraction operations may be particularly vulnerable as most African manufacturers sell raw materials to the United States (not finished products).

Nigeria is still in the pain of the cost of living crisis, which leads to high levels of hunger and poverty. Meanwhile, South Africa has recorded the world’s highest unemployment rate, with an estimated six out of 10 unemployed. Experts there earlier estimated that a 25% blanket tariff would be the “worst case”.

Speaking to South African publication IOL, Casey Sprake, an economist at South African investment firm Anchor Capital, said the 25% situation could reduce the country’s economic growth between 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points. The country ended up getting 31%.

How will African countries react?

In the short term, countries like South Africa seem to want to reason with Trump more favorable conditions.

In a statement earlier this week, Trade Secretary Tau said the country urgently sought a meeting with Washington. Tau noted that South Africa’s automobile exports account for only 0.99% of total U.S. auto imports and 0.27% of auto parts – the figures he said are hardly a threat to the U.S. market.

In general, African countries may turn to alternative trading partners such as China to avoid U.S. tariffs, Nwanze added. In nearly 20 years, China has surpassed the United States’ largest trading partner and represents one of the largest bilateral lenders on the continent.

China imports raw products such as crude oil, iron ore, copper, and is increasingly focusing on agricultural products. On the other hand, the country’s exports of finished products (such as electronics) have returned to the mainland.