itstargetnews
By Gleb Bryanski
MOSCOW (Reuters) – With Donald Trump promising a quick end to the war between Ukraine and Russia, market players are starting to look at what impact that could have on the ruble, which has become a pariah after sanctions .
HOW HAS THE RUBLE DONE IN THE LAST MONTHS?
The ruble started the year falling to its weakest level since March 2022, but has strengthened about 10% since then, becoming the best-performing emerging market currency on 2025
Despite U.S. energy sanctions imposed on Jan. 10, the currency is on track for its best month since emergency interest rate hikes, capital controls and other measures propped it up in the wake of the invasion of ‘Ukraine in February 2022.
In 2024, it began to strengthen in mid-April as military advances marked a change of course in Russia’s favor and despite falling oil prices, Russia’s main export commodity.
Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region reversed this. Losses in the ruble accelerated in November when Washington imposed sanctions on Gazprombank, which handles energy export payments and served as the main conduit for foreign currency earnings.
WHAT IMPACT COULD THE TRUMP-PUTIN TALKS HAVE?
Some analysts hope that some Western sanctions on Moscow could be partially lifted if Trump held direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, although even Trump advisers have acknowledged that any resolution to the war is unlikely to come immediately.
Some expect a rally in the ruble fueled by payments for Russian exports and a resumption of some foreign investment amid a possible gradual reintegration into the global system.
Others point to large deferred demand for imports from industries such as aviation or power generation, where existing needs for spare parts run into the tens of billions of dollars, which could send the ruble into freefall .
However, the sanctions will likely remain largely in place until a sustainable solution to the war is found, which could take years.
WHAT IS THE RUBLE’S VALUE?
The ruble has been driven by battlefield developments and sanctions rather than macroeconomic fundamentals, making it difficult to calculate its fair value.
Estimates are becoming scarcer. Many international analysts have stopped publishing ruble research and calculations.
The Moscow Exchange (MOEX), Russia’s main currency trading platform, and Russian banks have developed data products for the domestic market. Some non-Russian banks continue to supply data in rubles to international data services.
The central bank said in a January 17 report that the real effective exchange rate, a measure used to approximate the “fair value” of a currency, was 9% below its 10-year average.
