Israel’s military campaign in Gaza has succeeded devastating blows to Hamas: Killed top Hamas leaders and thousands of militants, destroyed the militant group’s tunnel network and undermined its ability to threaten Israel with rocket fire.

When Hamas launched its attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, it hoped to ignite a regional war that would attract its allies and lead to Israel’s destruction. Instead, it was left to fight Israel almost entirely alone. Its allies have been decimated in Lebanon, overthrown in Syria and weakened in Iran. The Houthis in Yemen have managed to launch only occasional rocket and drone attacks, most of which have been intercepted by Israel.

However, despite its isolation, Hamas remains the dominant Palestinian force in Gaza even after 15 months of Israeli bombardment, holding power in the displacement camps and refusing to surrender. Although many Palestinians criticized the group’s decision to launch an attack in October 2023 — setting off a war that killed tens of thousands of Gazans and reduced cities to rubble — it faced relatively little popular unrest.

Hamas celebrated the interim ceasefire agreement announced on Wednesday as an “achievement”, but its future role in Gaza remains uncertain.

The deal calls for an eventual “permanent cessation of military operations and hostilities,” but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly suggested he would resume attacks on Hamas after some hostages held by the militants are freed.

Still, if a full, multi-phase deal is implemented, it could open the door for Hamas to rebuild its firm grip on Gaza, or at least allow it to maintain an influential role in the territory. Analysts affiliated with Hamas believe that Israel will fight to continue the war in the face of international pressure and that Hamas will play a key role in Gaza’s future.

“Hamas will be present in every detail in Gaza,” said Ibrahim Madhoun, an analyst close to the militant group. “Trying to bypass Hamas will be like burying your head in the sand.”

Mr. Madhoun acknowledged that Hamas’s military wing, the Qassam Brigades, had suffered losses, but said it was still “standing on solid ground” and was recruiting new people to replace those killed. Antony J. Blinken, the US secretary of state, said this week that US officials estimated that Hamas had brought in almost as many new fighters as it had lost in the war.

But if Israel decides to return to war, it could continue to weaken the group.

A continuation of the war would not only be a disaster for the Palestinian people, but also for Hamas, said Tamer Qarmout, a professor of public policy at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies.

Under such a scenario, Mr. Qarmout said, Israel could find itself in the process of occupying Gaza, which could “cut off Hamas but antagonize everyone else in the public eye.”