Donald Trump promises major changes to the world’s largest economy.

“Ending the devastating inflation crisis,” tariffs and deep cuts in taxes, regulation and the size of government are all on the agenda.

The combination, he said, would ignite an economic boom and revive waning faith in the American dream.

“We are at the beginning of a great, beautiful golden age of business,” he promised from the podium at Mar-a-Lago earlier this month.

But the warning hanging over the president-elect is that many of his policies are more likely to hurt the economy than help it.

As he prepares to implement his plans, he will face political and economic realities that will make it difficult to deliver on all of his promises, analysts say.

“There is no clear path forward to achieve all of these goals because they are inherently contradictory,” said Romina Boccia, director of budget and welfare policy at the Cato Institute.

Here’s a closer look at his key commitments.

Trump’s promise is:

“Prices are going to come down,” he repeated.

It’s a risky promise—barring an economic crisis, prices rarely fall.

Inflation, which measures not the level of prices but the rate at which they rise, has fallen significantly but is proving difficult to eliminate entirely.

What complicates things:

Trump has pinned his case on a pledge to expand U.S. already record oil and natural gas production to lower energy costs. But the forces affecting inflation and energy prices are mostly beyond the president’s control.

In terms of the impact of White House policies, analysts warn that many of Trump’s ideas – including tax cuts, tariffs and deportations – have the potential to make the problem worse.

John Cochran, an economist at the right-leaning Hoover Institution, said the biggest question facing the economy is how Trump will balance the more traditional pro-business parts of his coalition with “nationalists” focused on issues such as border controls. “tensions” between the two countries and competition with China.

“Obviously neither camp is getting what they want,” he said. “That’s going to be the basic story, which is why we don’t know what’s going to happen.”

What Trump voters want:

The promise of inflation was key to Trump’s victory, but by many measures, including growth and job creation, the overall economy is not in the dire straits he painted on the campaign trail.

Since his win, he has tried to temper expectations, warning that it would be “very difficult” to lower prices.

Amanda Sue Mathis, 34, of Michigan, said she thinks Trump’s promise is feasible but may take time.

“If anyone can get a better deal and make things more affordable for Americans, it’s Donald Trump,” she said. “He literally wrote a book on the art of trading.”

Trump’s promise is:

Trump’s most unorthodox economic promise is his vow to impose tariffs (border taxes) of at least 10% on all goods entering the United States, with tariffs on products from China rising to more than 60%.

He has since stepped up threats against specific countries, including allies such as Canada, Mexico and Denmark.

Some Trump advisers have said tariffs are a negotiating tool to address other issues such as border security, and that he will ultimately take a more targeted or incremental approach.

What complicates things:

The debate has fueled speculation about what aggressive action Trump will decide to take, given the potential economic risks.

Analysts said the tariffs could lead to higher prices for Americans and inflict pain on companies hit by foreign retaliation.

Unlike Trump’s first term, any measures would come at a delicate moment, as the long U.S. economic expansion appears to be entering its final stages.

Even if the toughest tariffs never materialize, the policy debate itself would create uncertainty that could stifle investment and cause U.S. economic growth to fall by as much as 0.6% by mid-2025, Oxford Economics said .

“Their margin for error is very limited,” Michael Cembalest, chairman of markets and investment strategy at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, said in a recent podcast. He warned that the desire for major reforms could “ Destroy something,” but the exact results remain to be seen.

Everett Eisenstadt, a trade lawyer who served as White House economic adviser during Trump’s first term, said he expected sweeping tariffs but acknowledged the plan would compete with other goals.

“There are always tensions. The policy world is never going to be perfect. Obviously, I think one of the reasons he was re-elected was concerns about inflation,” he said.

“We’re in a different world (compared to the first semester) and we’ll have to see how it plays out,” he said.

What Trump voters want:

Ben Maurer, a lifelong Republican, said he hopes Trump will focus on the broader goal of reviving U.S. manufacturing rather than the tariffs themselves.

“I feel like this is more of a negotiating tactic than an actual policy line,” said the 38-year-old, who lives in Pennsylvania.

“It’s not that he won’t impose tariffs on anything – I think he will – but I think he’s going to be more strategic about what he imposes tariffs on. I support that and I think he has the discretion to decide what to impose tariffs on. Tariff.” Tariff. “

Trump’s promise is:

He laid out a plan for growth — lower taxes, fewer regulations and smaller government — that he said would unleash the energy of American business.

What complicates things:

But analysts say loosening regulations may take longer than expected. Trump is widely expected to prioritize extending expiring tax cuts over spending cuts.

Ms. Bocia of the Cato Institute said she expected borrowing to surge under the Trump administration and add to inflationary pressures.

In financial markets, she noted, these concerns have pushed interest rates on government debt higher in recent weeks.

While Trump will also face some resistance from within his own party over concerns that U.S. debt is already high, Ms. Bossia said extending the tax cuts – expected to add more than $4.5 trillion to U.S. debt over the next decade – seemed likely Almost certainly.

By contrast, Trump banned much of the budget during his campaign, when he promised to keep big programs like Social Security intact.

The so-called Department of Government Effectiveness (DOGE), led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, has also publicly scaled back its ambitions.

“The market is sending signals right now that economists agree with, but Washington doesn’t really realize,” she said. “Ultimately, politically it’s taking the path of least resistance.”

What Trump voters want:

Maurer said shrinking the bureaucracy is key to his hopes for government.

“Government spending is absolutely insane,” he said.

Additional reporting by Ana Faguy