India’s economy could be slower than expected before the 26th year, and the HSBC India economist, Pranjul Bhandari, warning that this year, the Route of the United States President Donald Trump can shave 0.5 percentage points of GDP growth this year.

“We (India) sell a lot of goods in the United States and now we will be charged an additional tax on this, which is higher than you had charged before,” Bhandari said in an exclusive interview with Rahul Kanwal by Business Today. “Someone will have to endure this pain, either the Indian producer of this good or the north -American consumer of this good or a mixture of the two.”

Bhandari estimates that India GDP growth could be less than previously provided due to direct rates. “For example, I hoped that growth was 6.5%, but it could be 6% now or maybe slightly lower,” he said. “So there will be growth of growth at the back of all this.”

While Indian Bank’s Bank Rate Cuttings can help the blow to the coup, Bhandari set a more worrying second impact: a slowdown in world commercial volumes.

“There is also an indirect drag that we must be very careful about. With all these rates, global growth volumes will be slowed … There will be this great indirect impact. My sense is that the growth of GDP in India will be less than FY26 much more than we had thought.”

In specific effects of the sector, Bhandari said that the impact is fluid and highly sensitive to policy changes. “Today we can discuss a group of winners and losers, but if changes are made, this set could completely change tomorrow,” he said.

For example, he said that pharmaceutical exporters initially feared once, but their perspective changed overnight when pharmaceuticals were exempt from rates. “Today, pharmaceutical stocks have done very well … but there are many other sectors, housed, cars, agricultural, which will now face higher rates than we thought only 48 hours ago.”

He said that uncertainty could stop the investment. “People who want to invest in Capex in Pharma or Textile; all will sit. No one will do anything because things change quite quickly with a pen.”

The United States has imposed 27% of reciprocal rates on most Indian goods from April 9, above the 10% reference line from April 5. While sectors such as select energy, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals have been exempt, key Indian exports, including clothing, medical devices and jewelry, are expected.

The Indian government has said that it is closely evaluating the impact and explores the ways of turning interruption into the opportunity through a deeper commercial commitment to the United States.

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