Mr. Ben-Gvir has already proven to be an unreliable and problematic coalition partner. Demanding a pay rise for the police, he refused to support the government in passing key legislation last month, forcing Mr. Netanyahu to leave his hospital bed while he was recovering from prostate surgery and to vote in the assembly to pass the law.

Mr. Netanyahu has held frequent and lengthy meetings with Mr. Smotrich to convince him to stay in the coalition. After three hours of conversation between Mr. Smotrich and representatives of his party on Thursday, the party issued an ultimatum asking Mr. Netanyahu’s promise to resume the war against Hamas immediately after the first six-week ceasefire as a condition for Mr. Smotrich to remain in government.

Mr. Netanyahu, meanwhile, postponed convening the cabinet to vote on ratifying the deal, citing last-minute disputes with Hamas over details.

Mr. Netanyahu is battling corruption charges in the U.S long trial and risks facing a public reckoning after the war ends over military and political failures ahead of a Hamas attack in 2023. Given the circumstances, some analysts believe he will opt to scrap the second phase of the deal, if Hamas does not do so first, in order to keep his coalition intact .

“Netanyahu wants to stay in power,” said Gayil Talshir, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. “It makes no sense for him to go to an election that he might not win. He wants to lead the government for two more years.”

Mr. Netanyahu could still reach an agreement with Mr. I’m watching. Even if the Minister of Finance joins Mr. Ben-Gviru in leaving the coalition, Mr. Netanyahu could, at least for a while, remain at the head of a minority government. The leaders of the opposition parties say that Mr. To provide Netanyahu with a political safety net for the sake of peace.

Either way, the government is likely to survive until the end of the first phase of the deal, said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, a nonpartisan think tank in Jerusalem.

But Mr. Netanyahu may have to decide between his parliamentary majority and his relationship with the incoming administration in Washington, with Mr. Trump and Saudi Arabia, which may offer him the opportunity to enrich his legacy.

“I think he is already in the next big move,” said Mr. Plesner about Mr. Netanyahu, adding: “If he has to choose between an intimate relationship with the Trump administration and Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, he will choose Trump.”

U.S. and Israeli officials said the deal reached this week was very similar to the proposal President Biden made last May.