The Palisades real estate market will stall for a while as the fires rage and tens of thousands of residents evacuate the area, according to an industry economist.
Bidding will be delayed until the full extent of the damage is assessed, but market movement will pick up again for homes that remain unscathed, Redfin Chief Economist Daryl told FOX Business Fairweather.
“There may be some jitters over the next few weeks, but after the dust settles and the fires are out, I think the impacts will be very localized to just the homes that were damaged,” Fairweather said. .
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As of 4 p.m. ET Wednesday, at least four fires were burning in Los Angeles County. Zero percent of fires have been contained, officials told Fox News.
In addition, more than 30,000 residents are under mandatory evacuation orders and tens of thousands have lost power. Governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency, warning that the worst of the winds were expected between 10:00 p.m. Tuesday and 5:00 a.m. Wednesday.
Fairweather believes business will return to normal fairly quickly for homes outside the evacuation zone, even those next to the damage that is still intact. He does not anticipate that these houses will have difficulty finding a buyer, given that the area is so “sought after”.
In 2021, Redfin published a report that looked at areas directly affected by wildfires and found that there was an average increase of 595% in the number of homes built in the three years following a wildfire. Comparatively, there has been a decrease of 6% in the areas that were outside the fire perimeters.
Because the area is so valuable, he doesn’t anticipate mass migration out of the area and believes reconstruction projects will begin within a year.
Christopher Anderson, a Redfin real estate agent based in Napa, Calif., previously said that after fires, “local authorities tend to speed up permits and design reviews, and push fire-affected properties to the front of the line “. communities can be rebuilt.
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He added that “they build homes in four to six months after the fires, whereas normally it can take a builder a year and a half to put a shovel in the ground.”
However, Fairweather said in the Redfin report that wildfires tend to make housing more expensive.
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“After a city burns, builders come in and build new homes, which tend to be more expensive. And the homeowners who stay often invest in making their homes more fireproof, which increases the value of the property,” he said.
Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale also noted this house prices and rent may increase in the short term as “homes on the market decline as homeowners postpone plans to sell to assess damage and displaced locals look to find temporary housing in the area.
But, “the long-term outlook will be more mixed, depending on how quickly rebuilding occurs and whether the desirability of an area outweighs concerns about a potential repeat event,” he added.
In fact, in a separate report from Redfin, the real estate company, it reported that builders are confident of rebuilding in high-risk areas given that the demand is there. In fact, more people are moving in than out of areas facing a high risk of wildfires and other natural disasters linked to climate change, according to an August 2021 Redfin report.
Conversely, Jake Herczeg, a licensed architect with extensive experience in real estate operations and Ballast’s chief operating officer, said building in “dense urban areas like San Francisco, CA, safer long-term investments compared with suburban and rural areas accounting for higher.” risk”.