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Russian forces are advancing into Ukraine’s Dnipro region, going through an expected heavy battle in the eastern part of Donetsk.

Ukraine has been preparing for urban warfare in Pokrovsk, a key logistics and transport hub for the remaining Ukrainian-controlled parts of the Donetsk region, since the summer.

But Russian forces pushing from the south are now heading west of Pokrovsk and less than 7km from passing the highway to the Dnipropetrovsk region, according to the Deep State mapping group, which has ties to the ministry. in defense of Ukraine.

“They understood that they would lose a lot of forces trying to take Pokrovsk so they decided to pursue a different strategy and approach from the south and surround it,” Andriy Cherniak, a senior intelligence officer of the Ukrainian military, told the Financial Times on Sunday.

“They will try to cut off all supplies to Pokrovsk so that our forces can leave there,” he added.

The Russian defense ministry announced on Sunday the capture of the Yantarnoye settlement in the Donetsk region, approximately 50km south of Pokrovsk, after “active offensive operations”.

“The border of the Dnipropetrovsk region is now approximately 6.5km away,” Russian military blogger Voenkor Kotenok posted on his Telegram channel on Sunday.

The next major city within Dnipropetrovsk is Pavlograd, a major Ukrainian military base. The region also includes Dnipro, the fourth largest city in Ukraine.

How quickly the Russian forces will be able to take the highway to Dnipropetrovsk, depends on the size of forts in that area as well as the Ukrainian manpower, which is increasing lack of supply.

A Ukrainian soldier whose brigade fought in the Pokrovsk area, who spoke to the FT on condition of anonymity, said the terrain could also be a factor, describing it as “deep, muddy and impassable”.

Russian forces gained thousands of square kilometers in the Donetsk region by 2024. The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think-tank, said Russia had gained approximately 4,200 sq km of Ukrainian territory last year, most of it in the Donetsk region.

This momentum put them in a position to take the highway to the Dnipropetrovsk region, cutting off Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk as well as forcing Ukrainian forces to defend from two directions at once.

“They’re trying to get as much territory as possible so that when their forces are depleted, they have something to negotiate with,” Cherniak said.

Ukraine announced on Saturday that it had taken its first North Korean prisoners of war from Russia’s southern Kursk region, providing further evidence of Pyongyang’s involvement.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the captured men were receiving medical help, adding that “the world needs to know the truth about what happened”.

Ukraine launched a modified thrust in Russia’s Kursk region last week, after losing nearly half of the territory gained in its invasion in August. Russia’s territorial occupation is still seen by Ukraine and its allies as key to any potential negotiations.

US secretary of state Antony Blinken told reporters in Seoul on Monday that Kursk is important for Ukraine. “It’s certainly something that will factor into any negotiations that take place in the coming year,” he added.

Cartography and animation by Steven Bernard