Investing.com– Stifel analysts said in a recent note that logistics and freight companies with exposure to North American trade are likely to see limited impact from President-elect’s plans Donald Trump for more trade tariffs.

But the brokerage sees risks for eastern and trans-pacific shipping companies, as Trump has promised to increase trade scrutiny against several Asian economies, especially China.

Trump has promised to impose the tariffs from “day one” of his Presidency, and is set to take office next week on January 20.

Stifel said on the bottom line, the tariffs are expected to drag down global freight demand, likely signaling higher shipping costs to be passed on to consumers.

China is expected to be the worst hit by this trend, with trade flows from China likely to decline further in the coming years, further damaging the country’s already struggling economy. Trump has also threatened to target imports from Canada and Mexico.

But Stifel analysts say the tariffs on Canada and Mexico are “unlikely to stick,” because the U.S. manufacturing industry still relies on materials from both.

The brokerage shows a favorable view of domestic and North American freight providers, and sees a high risk for companies with exposure to China and the East.

“We believe that domestic manufacturing capacity in the US cannot, or will take a long time to replace existing capacity abroad, this game is more or less zero-sum; in short: the goods it has to come from somewhere.

Among individual stocks, Stifel said it sees a favorable setup for GXO Logistics Inc (NYSE: ) after a weak 2025.

FedEx Corporation (NYSE: ) and United Parcel Service Inc (NYSE: ) is expected to see more risk due to their international exposure.

But the brokerage flagged the prospect of more “nearshoring,” which is the practice of engaging in trade with countries closer geographically to offset rising costs.

Besides GXO, Stifel said UPS and CSX Corporation (NASDAQ: ) are also likely to benefit from increased nearshoring. The brokerage has Buy ratings on all three stocks.