Many believe that history is largely determined by the personal relationships between world leaders. Vladimir Putin’s 25 years of interaction with foreign leaders provide a fascinating case study for that theory.

The Russian President recently invited Narendra Modi for a private dinner at his home, and the Indian Prime Minister said he was very touched by the gesture. China’s Xi Jinping called Putin his best friend. At the 2024 BRICS summit, Putin said friendships like these are the foundation for a “new world order.”

In the past, rival leaders were treated differently.

There was evidence that Putin played psychological games with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, for example. At the meeting in Sochi in 2007, where the supply of energy to Europe was discussed, the Russian president brought his large labrador. Putin knew that Merkel was terrified of dogs – the result of a dog attack years before – and this unsettled her during their conversation.

IN Putin’s tripnew two-hour CBC documentary marking a quarter of a century in power, former Canadian foreign minister Peter MacKay said he was shocked by Putin’s behavior with Merkel.

“It speaks to the dark nature, the character flaw of that man that crosses all lines in terms of diplomacy and just human nature,” MacKay said.

Soviet-born Australian journalist Zoya Sheftalovich, who writes for Politico Europe, told the CBC that Putin is “well informed, he knows people’s buttons and he pushes them.”

Konstantin Eggert, a journalist from Lithuania who works for Germany’s public broadcaster Deutsche Welle, said he “obviously wants to dominate all the time. He wants to prove he’s the strongest guy in the room. He always has to have someone to humiliate.”

Putin’s treatment of foreign leaders appears to be based on the knowledge that he will outlive them. He plays the long game to get the results he wants. And he’s probably enjoying Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency, especially since Trump has said so many negative things about Ukraine and NATO.

Luke Harding, former Guardian Moscow bureau chief and author The Invasion: The Inside Story of Russia’s Bloody War and Ukraine’s Fight for Survivalsays Putin “thinks Western leaders are gullible and short-lived”.

“They’re kind of colorful butterflies that flutter around for a while and then disappear when winter comes. Whereas Putin, who we know is close to outliving Stalin, doesn’t have to worry about boring things like elections, and he knows what he’s going to do for two years, four years.”

‘We badly misjudged Putin’

Shortly after Putin became president in 2000, George W. Bush was elected president of the United States. He came to meet Putin at a summit in Slovenia, where he shared his current judgment of his Russian counterpart, famously declaring: “I looked the man in the eye… I could sense his soul.”

“I think George W. Bush now regrets saying that, because it’s not clear exactly where Putin’s soul is,” John Bolton, a former US ambassador to the United Nations and national security adviser who has met Putin several times, told the CBC.

“But (the comment) was an indication of optimism that we felt the cold war was over, that we could find a way to bridge our differences and work together against what we saw as common threats,” Bolton said. “I think in retrospect we can see that we misjudged Putin.”

WATCH | Former Canadian Foreign Minister Peter MacKay on Putin:

Former Canadian Foreign Minister Peter MacKay talks about the fateful meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and former Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

It seemed that it wasn’t just the Americans who fell under Putin’s spell. During a visit to the United Kingdom in 2003, he received the royal treatment, touring London with the Queen in a horse-drawn carriage. It was a shock for Russian dissident journalist Vladimir Kara-Murza.

“Literally in the same week that Vladimir Putin’s government shut down the last independent television channel (in Russia), he was treated to a lavish state visit to London and a ride with the Queen of England,” Kara-Murza told the CBC.

He points out that Putin also had political opponents arrested and imprisoned. “It was clear from the beginning, and yet … Western democratic countries deliberately chose to turn a blind eye to all these domestic authoritarian abuses.”

The CBC requested an interview with Putin, but his press secretary declined the invitation.

Greater interest in Ukraine

Beginning in 2012, Putin became more forceful toward Western countries, something that became evident in his first private meeting with then-French President Francois Hollande. Putin was worried about NATO’s expansion into Eastern Europe and the missiles installed there.

As Hollande told the CBC, “He asked for a piece of paper, which is quite rare for a meeting between heads of state. And on it he drew a map of Europe and put missiles that were placed in the central part of Europe that directly threatened his security. He already wanted to play the victim — ‘I was attacked’ — to better justify what he might do to supposedly defend himself.”

Hollande was amazed by Putin’s psychological tactics in their personal meetings. “It’s no coincidence that he trained with the KGB. The KGB was all about ‘I threaten you, but I also hug you in an almost personal relationship.’ He always plays a double game: ‘I’m threatening you, but I’m ready to talk’.”

By 2013, Putin had turned his attention back to Ukraine, calling on pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych to cancel a proposed new deal with Europe. The majority pro-Western population of Ukraine rebelled, and Maidan Square in Kiev was filled with anti-Turkish protesters, encouraged by European and American politicians.

Yanukovych tried to suppress the protest on the Maidan with police violence, but the protesters held out. After numerous casualties, Yanukovych fled the country by helicopter in the dead of night.

Journalist Politico Sheftalovich says that it was a heavy blow for Putin.

“He saw Ukraine as part of Russia, and he saw the Euro Maidan as essentially the first part of a potential uprising that could eventually end in his removal from power. So it was unacceptable to him that the Euro Maidan had taken over and that these protests had removed his man from work.”

Amidst the joyous celebration in Kiev, Putin was plotting his revenge. He decided to break up Ukraine by seizing the Crimean peninsula in the south and the majority Russian-speaking area in the east of the country. In 2014, he deployed Russian soldiers to Crimea without any markings on their uniforms. They became known as the “little green men”.

When asked about them, Putin said that they have nothing to do with Russia. Meanwhile, Russian soldiers and Russian-backed separatists began attacking the Ukrainian army in the Russian-speaking eastern regions of the Donbass.

Garry Kasparov, the former world chess champion who left the sport to oppose Putin’s regime, saw Crimea as a turning point.

“That was the best way to tell the West that, you know, it doesn’t play by the rules anymore… Annexation of territory is just a very important element of destroying the world order. Dictators, they are opportunists. Even Hitler was an opportunist, or Stalin was what made them really strong.

The fateful G20 meeting

Once again, the Western response to Putin’s actions appeared weak. However, he was invited to the commemoration of the 70th anniversary of the invasion of Normandy in France in June 2014. Hollande welcomed him as the guest of honor.

The new, pro-Western Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko, was also there. Putin agreed to a short meeting with Poroshenko, who knew what he was up against.

“I have a few recommendations for those who are planning to meet with Putin,” he told the CBC. “Point number 1, don’t trust Putin. He is a KGB officer who has specially learned to lie. Second, don’t be afraid of Putin, because if you fear Putin, it feeds him. Putin will only go as far as we together let him.”

At the G20 meeting a few months later in Australia, then Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper tried a tougher approach.

According to MacKay, “Vladimir Putin came to this private meeting with other world leaders and immediately went up to our prime minister … who was quite vocal about Putin and his apparent plans for Crimea. Putin walked up to him, held out his hand … Prime Minister Harper then looked at him and said, ‘You need to get out of Crimea.’ And Putin said: ‘We are not in Crimea’.

“That was the beginning of the end for Russia’s participation in the G8, because everyone in the room knew he was lying.”

Amid mounting casualties and a stalemate in the war with Ukraine, Putin appears to have returned to his waiting game as he watched the clock tick down on the term of President Joe Biden, who led NATO’s campaign in defense of Ukraine.

While many Western leaders were shocked by Putin’s all-out invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Hollande said: “There is a huge misunderstanding between the Europeans and Putin, and more broadly, the West and Putin.

“Europeans do not want to go to war. For them, war has a terrible history, the history of the 20th century, and there is no reason to think that war is possible today on the continent.

“But for Putin, war is possible. It’s a disconnect. We are peaceful, democratic nations that do not like death. While for Putin, death is part of the action.”

WATCH | Full documentary Putin’s Journey: