It The US economy entered 2025 With a firm hand, according to the National Business Economy Association, a group of the main economists in the country, with the possibility of a prolonged slowdown that falls.

“The odds of a recession continue to decrease according to the panelists, with risks in large part linked to the uncertainty about the implementation and the moment of the political proposals of the new administration,” said Nabe President Emily. Kolinski Morris, CBE, global chief economist at Ford Motor Company. , in the Business Conditions Survey of the Group made from December 30, 2024 to January 13, 2025.

President Donald Trump, who took possession a week agoHe started working, launching a series of executive orders favorable to companies linked to the United States more open to cryptocurrencing, relieving energy restrictions and freezing federal hiring while his DOGE, Department of Efficiency. From the Government, evaluate the areas to be reduced. Waste.

In addition, he announced to Investment of $ 500 billion of Openai, Softbank and Oracle To expand artificial intelligence in the US, he is also threatening to tariffs against Canada, Mexico and China.

However, inflation is still an opposite wind. While 65% of NABE economists see stable prices over the next three months, 35% are expected to increase prices, an increase with respect to 28% surveyed in October.

The consumer price rate increased by 2.9% per annum last month and 0.4% compared to November. The basic CPI, which excludes food and volatile energy, increased by 3.2% per year. Inflation is well below its maximum of 9.1% in July 2022, but still above the favorite goal of the 2% federal reserve.

Inflation hikes 2.9% in December, in line with expectations

President Donald Trump makes a video conference speech during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on January 23, 2025. (Halil Sagirkaya/Anadolu Via)

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Trump, during his remote appearance in the face of the World Economic Forum that set his return to office, blamed the Biden administration of high inflation.

“”Over the last four years, our government has accumulated $ 8 trillion in a waste deficit expense and inflicted the nation’s devastating energy restrictions, paralyzing regulations and hidden taxes as never before. The result is the worst crisis of inflation in modern history and high interest rates for our citizens and even worldwide, food prices and the price of almost all other things known to humanity They went through the roof, “Trump told Davos attendees., Switzerland also made a stroke Jerome Powell, President of the Fed.

“”I will demand that interest rates go down immediately. And in the same way, they should fall around the world. Interest rates should follow us, “he said.

Fed President Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference at the Federal Reserve on December 18, 2024 in Washington, DC (Alex Wong / Getty Images)

It is expected that policymakers will leave the types unchanged at the end of the two -day meeting Wednesday according to the FEDWATCH tool of CMEwhich tracks the probability of rate movements. This will maintain the rate of federal funds between 4.25% and 4.50%.

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On Thursday, the GDP of the fourth quarter increases by 3%, in line with 3.1% of the third quarter.