Business tycoons such as Elon Musk TikTok should be prepared to spend tens of billions of dollars to acquire TikTok’s U.S. operations if parent company ByteDance decides to sell.

If the U.S. government bans TikTok, the U.S. may impose a ban on it. supreme court decision Uphold national security laws where service providers, e.g. apple and Google There will be a penalty if the app is hosted after the Sunday deadline. ByteDance has not said it will sell the U.S. unit of the app, but the Chinese government Already considered X owner Musk will acquire the business as part of several options being considered, Bloomberg News report on Monday.

If ByteDance decides to sell, potential buyers could spend $40 billion to $50 billion. This is the valuation from CFRA Research Senior Vice President Angelo Zino estimated TikTok’s U.S. operations. Zeno’s valuation is based on estimates of TikTok’s U.S. user base and revenue compared to rival apps.

TikTok has about 115 million monthly mobile users in the U.S., slightly behind Instagram’s 131 million, according to estimates from market intelligence firms sensor tower. This puts TikTok ahead Snapshot, interest and RedditAccording to Sensor Tower data, the U.S. monthly mobile subscriber bases in these three countries are 96 million, 74 million, and 32 million respectively.

However, Zino’s estimate was lower than the more than $60 billion he estimated for the sector in March 2024, when the House passed President Joe Biden’s original national security bill sign It becomes law next month.

Zino told CNBC in an email that the downgrade was due to TikTok’s current geopolitical woes and “a pickup in industry multiples” since March. Zeno’s estimate does not include TikTok’s valuable recommendation algorithms, which the U.S. acquirer would not receive as part of the deal, and which, along with its alleged ties to China, are central to the U.S. government’s view that TikTok poses a national security threat.

Bloomberg Intelligence analysts estimate TikTok’s U.S. business at $30 billion to $35 billion. This is an estimate they released in July, when they said the value of the unit would be “discounted due to a forced sale”.

Analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence pointed out that finding a buyer for TikTok’s U.S. business that can both afford transaction costs and deal with the ensuing data privacy regulatory scrutiny makes the sale challenging. It could also make it difficult for buyers to expand TikTok’s advertising business, they wrote.

A consortium of businessmen including billionaires Frank McCourt Kevin O’Leary, chairman of O’Leary Ventures, made a bid to acquire TikTok from ByteDance. O’Leary has previously said the group is willing to pay up to $20 billion No algorithm required to acquire US assets.

O’Leary said in a statement on Monday that, unlike Musk’s bid, the O’Leary Group’s bid would not be subject to regulatory scrutiny interview with Fox News.

O’Leary said he was “a huge fan of Elon Musk,” but added that “the likelihood that regulators would allow this to happen is slim, even under the Trump administration.”

TikTok, X and O’Leary Ventures did not respond to requests for comment.

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