Donald Trump was typically blunt when he first warned in December that there would be “all hell to pay” in the Middle East if Israeli hostages held in Gaza were not released before his inauguration.

The belligerent tone of the US president-elect had the desired effect, adding momentum to long-stalled talks and culminating in Israel and Hamas agreeing on Wednesday to a cease-fire agreement that halted the devastating which ended the 15-month war in Gaza and freed the 98 remaining captives held in the country. take off

Along with Steve Witkoff, Trump’s New York real estate pal became the Middle East envoy, playing a central role as he shuttled between Qatar – which hosted the negotiations – and Israel, the mediator finally got the agreement that has been missing for a long time in the Biden administration.

That means the people of Gaza, who have endured immeasurable suffering through the deadliest war in their history, will finally have some respite from Israeli bombs and bullets, and can begin to think about rebuilding.

Relatives of the remaining Israeli hostages held since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023 that killed 1,200 people, according to Israeli officials, will begin to hope that their nightmare will end. The captives, who suffered a hellish life trapped in Hamas’ tunnel network, will be freed if the deal goes ahead.

The main question is whether it will survive. Is this a temporary truce, or will it lead to the permanent ceasefire that mediators, Palestinians and the wider region want?

Trump has already claimed victory in helping secure a deal where President Joe Biden failed. But the stability of the ceasefire brokered by the US, Qatar and Egypt may depend on his willingness to continue using US political muscle, including ensuring that the right-wing government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sees of the agreement.

The incoming Trump administration is filled with staunchly pro-Israeli figures, and in his first term he has shown little empathy or patience for the Palestinians as he implements a series of pro-Israel measures. which upends decades of US policy. But the hope is that Trump will now seek ownership of the deal, and ensure its success.

However, there is the risk of spoilers on all sides, including Hamas, whose military capacity has been severely weakened, but not eliminated.

The cease-fire agreement is based on a three-phase proposal that Biden first endorsed in May. It will begin with an initial 42-day pause, during which 33 hostages – including women, elderly, and wounded – will be released in exchange for an agreed number of Palestinian prisoners. Israeli troops had to redeploy away from urban centers, and allow aid to flow into the strip, followed by starvation and disease.

More challenging is the second phase, which aims to lead to a permanent ceasefire, the release of the remaining hostages – including Israeli soldiers – and the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops.

At this stage, the finer details of which still need to be negotiated, Netanyahu’s commitment will be fully tested.

He has consistently rejected agreeing to a permanent end to the war or withdrawing his forces from Gaza. Hamas, meanwhile, has demanded that high-category prisoners, including those with life sentences for murder and terrorism, be released in exchange for the soldiers being held hostage – a bitter pill to swallow for those Israeli.

Netanyahu is already facing opposition from far-right allies and ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. Smotrich described the deal as “rebellious”; Ben-Gvir this week called on the former to join him in resigning from the government.

While the veteran prime minister’s ruling coalition was strengthened by the addition of another right-wing party in September, the departure of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich will nevertheless leave him with a minority government. Netanyahu could be forced into early elections, bringing the political reckoning to the ballot box that he seeks to avoid.

There is still no clarity on the key issue of who will run the strip. Neither Israel, the US nor the Arab states want Hamas – which has ruled Gaza since 2007 – to regain control, but Netanyahu has not presented a practical plan for the “day after” the war. He rejected US and Arab pressure to work with the Palestinian Authority, which controls limited parts of the occupied West Bank.

He railed against any steps toward a Palestinian state, which experts say is the only long-term solution.

The Biden administration for several months has been talking with Arab partners about the possible formation of an international security force to work with an interim PA-backed Palestinian administration – including the Gazans – to deal with the civil affairs.

But the US won’t put boots on the ground and it’s unclear who else – if anyone – would want to, given the risks of being absorbed into an insurgency and seen as doing Israel’s bidding. It is unclear whether Trump will propose his own plan, or even if he has thought about the future of Gaza beyond the day of his inauguration.

Yet the needs of the people of Gaza could not be more urgent. The Israeli offensive has killed more than 46,000 people, according to Palestinian officials, including civilians and fighters. Entire families were wiped out, and a generation of children were orphaned and scarred for life.

Schools, hospitals, houses, offices and businesses were destroyed. Most of Gaza’s 2.3 million population have been driven from their homes. Many do not know what they will find when they return.

Trump is likely to focus on pushing for a grand bargain that would lead to Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Israel. But Riyadh insists this will only happen if Israel takes irreversible steps towards a Palestinian state.

With Netanyahu and his far-right allies in power, Israel is more likely to want to annex the West Bank or escalate the conflict with Iran than to make concessions to the Palestinians.

Stopping the war took almost a year of negotiations. But compared to the Herculean task of rebuilding Gaza, not to mention the long-elusive goal of a lasting peace in the region, this may prove to be the easy part.