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Wall Street banks expect Tesla car sales to be slower this year than climate palm Donald Trump’s ERA climate policies.

Tesla is preparing to sell 2.07mn cars this year, up 16 percent in 2024, according to analysts supplied by the manufacturer. That would be a rebound from last year, when the group reported its first drop Since 2011but this is well below the 20 to 30 percent musk expected in October and below the past two years’ growth of about 40 percent.

The numbers highlight the challenge Tesla faces from Trump’s pledge to roll back policies that boosted US sales. Last week an executive order that the White House Consider “the elimination of unfair subsidies and other bad distortions of the market without pain”.

“Trump 2.0’s opposition to EV incentives has BROKEN 2025 volume expectations,” said Morgan Stanley Analyst Adam Jonas.

Tesla, which reports fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday, will be hit hard if Trump scraps a $7,500 tax credit for EV buyers. Barclays analyst Dan Lyvy estimates that nearly two-thirds of US sales benefit from US credits.

Changes to EV subsidies are likely to be implemented from 2026; Some analysts say Tesla’s sales numbers may have been driven by buyers rushing to complete sales in the past. Lever predicts “a significant ev pre-buy” in the second half of 2025 before volumes fall next year; Some analysts think pre-shows boosted Tesla’s sales.

Some analysts questioned how big the pre-buy was; BNP Paribas did not leave the evaluation of the growth rate this year will be less than 12 percent.

Tesla investors are also worried about more “EV Market Pressures, CHINA COMPATIBILITY (and) DEDEAD CYBERTRUCK VOUMENTS”, Jonas said.

Overall US EV growth US growth slowed last year due to high prices and lack of new models; Market share is 8 percent, compared to 7.6 percent in 2023.

Meanwhile, Trump’s Trump trade policy toward China could exacerbate tensions in Tesla’s second-largest market.

Musk’s strong support of Trump and interventions in British, Italian and German politics may also have alienated some potential customers. EU sales in the EU will increase by 13 percent year-on-year in 2024, according to ACEA, the body of the European automotive industry.

Ginny Buckley, Founder of electrionfriending.com, a Purn Counseling Site in Tay-an, said: “Tesla was a market leader, and still is in many ways, but people have given up.”

Tesla’s age is another cause of concern for investors. The new model that has been released since the 2020 model y sports utility vehicle is the Cybertruck, which starts at $82,000 and is sold between 9,000 and 12,000 unit one quarter.

This year Tesla is revising the model y, but last year it scrapped plans for a new $25,000 vehicle dubbed model 2 publicly and known as NV91 internally. Musk has been vague about plans for a successor to the NV91, leading some analysts to speculate that it may announce a “Model 2.5” this year.

The company told investors that the new model could arrive in the second half of this year; Many expect more details to emerge this week.

Musk previously predicted that the total sales of Tesla could in the future top 20mn a year. But even with a new bard offer, Tom Narayan, a capital markets analyst at RBC, said it was unlikely. He expects TESLA to eventually achieve annual sales of 6mn more.

Despite the risk of collapsing sales growth, analysts say Tesla’s future is bright – thanks to this pivot to artificial intelligence. Musk is betting that advances in AI technology will make it possible to build a Fleet of Autonomous “Robotaxis”.

“Selling cars is a small piece of that,” Narayan said, adding Tesla’s new revenue stream comes from semi-autonomous driving software.

Tesla is also building a humanoid robot that Musk says is “the biggest product of any kind” and should boost the company to the value of $ 25TN, from $ 4TN of its current market capitalization.

“A ‘Regulatory Friendly’ What White House will help unlock the value of Tesla stock as the autonomous (car) Timeline Daniel Ives.

“There’s an anti-ev focus around emissions standards and removing the $7,500 tax credits” but that doesn’t count against “the focus on AI innovation, which provides excellent tailwinds “, he said.