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It is not yet clear that the Gaza ceasefire will be enforced. But, if the war is over, what does it mean for the world?
For Israel, the effect seems to be double-edged. The country’s leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, could argue that he turned a national tragedy into a strategic victory. Hamas is broken, if not completely destroyed. Hizbollah, the Lebanese militant group that is the most armed and threatening part of Iran’s “axis of resistance,” has also weakened. Iran and Israel exchanged direct fire. But most of Iran’s missiles have failed to penetrate the defenses of Israel and its allies — and the Islamic republic is looking in a weaker position than it has been in decades.
At the strategic level, Israel emerged from this conflict as the superpower of the Middle East – with its military control fully restored and its enemies in disarray. But against that, Israel suffered a great reputational damage. It is believed that around 46,000 people died during the Israeli offensive and Gaza was devastated. Netanyahu has been indicted by the International Criminal Court on war crimes charges – putting him in the same legal bracket as Vladimir Putin. Like the Russian leader, it will now be more difficult for Netanyahu to travel internationally.
Israel’s popularity has plummeted in international opinion polls. Young people – even in the US – are especially anti-national today. A Pew survey in April concluded that: “Young Americans are more likely to sympathize with the Palestinian people than with the Israeli people.” A third of adults under 30 say their sympathies lie entirely or mostly with the Palestinian people, compared to 14 percent who side with Israel.
Israelis can hope that opinions will soften over time – especially if peace is restored. Netanyahu and his allies also believe that friends in the White House are more important than enemies on American campuses.
But Trump’s friendship may not be unconditional. There is an apparent shock to the Israeli far-right that the incoming US administration is putting its weight behind a ceasefire and hostage release agreement negotiated by the Biden White House. Israel’s hopes that Trump would give it a completely free hand to deal with the Palestinians, as it should, have taken a knock.
Trump’s decision to push hard for peace today may reflect two main reasons. The first is his desire to get credit for a deal and hostage releases. The second is that – while Israel enjoys the warm support of the Republican right – it is not the only important country in the region. During his first presidency, Trump’s first trip abroad was to Saudi Arabia.
The incoming Trump administration will likely push for the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia — which is also a key goal of the Biden administration. Possibly, this offers a scintilla of hope to the Palestinians, as it is widely believed that the Saudi price for normalization can be seen as progress towards a Palestinian state. However, that may be a price the Israelis are unwilling to pay, which may mean the Saudi-Israel deal remains a mirage.
The war in Gaza also has a global, as well as a regional significance. One of the reasons the US and its western allies are reluctant to put too much pressure on Israel is their belief that Iran is a common enemy. Over the past year, western officials have been increasingly vocal about their belief that they are now waging a global war against a loose “axis of adversaries” made up of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. .
By weakening Iran, Israel also weakens the axis. The fall of the Assad regime in Syria was, in large part, a side effect of Israel’s devastating attack on Hizbollah, a key ally of Bashar al-Assad.
The collapse of Assad’s power, in turn, was a significant blow for Iran and Russia, which intervened militarily on his behalf. Russia has been using Syria as a base for power projection and now needs to back off. Paradoxically, Israel itself has had a more cautious response to the fall of Assad than many in the west, fearing that jihadist forces will move into the power vacuum in Syria.
The latest casualty of the war in Gaza is the “international rules-based order” promoted by the Biden administration. Sympathy and support for Israel after the October 7 attacks led the US to condone repeated violations of international humanitarian law during Israel’s attack on Gaza. Re-establishing a rules-based order will be as difficult as physically rebuilding Gaza.
