After a midnight “breakthrough” in the talks, mediator Qatar reportedly gave Israel and Hamas a blueprint on Monday ceasefire agreement to end the war in Gaza, the Reuters news agency reported, citing an official familiar with the talks.
The official told Reuters that the talks were attended by the heads of Israel’s Shin Bet and Mossad spy agencies, the man who will become the US envoy when President-elect Trump takes office next week, Steve Witkoff and the Qatari prime minister. Reuters also reported that officials from the Biden administration were believed to be involved.
“The next 24 hours will be crucial to reach an agreement,” the official told Reuters.
“We’re not there yet, but there is potential for real progress,” an official close to the talks told CBS News.
What’s going on with the Israeli-Hamas ceasefire talks?
Israel and Hamas have been conducting indirect negotiations for more than a year with the aim of ending it the war in Gaza and returning dozens of hostages held by militants in exchange for Palestinians jailed by Israel.
On Sunday, President Biden spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the ongoing negotiations. The White House said the two leaders discussed the deal, building on the deal Mr. Biden outlined last year. The Biden administration pushed for a deal before Trump’s inauguration on January 20.
But despite intensive mediation by the United States, Qatar and Egypt, the talks have stalled repeatedly over several key issues including the details of the exchange, whether the ceasefire will be permanent and the withdrawal of Israeli forces.
As both sides accused the other of retreating, the war continued.
Dozens of Palestinians are killed every day in Israeli attacks, and most of Gaza’s 2.3 million people are crammed into squalid tent camps, while their settlements are in ruins. Aid groups are struggling to deliver desperately needed aid, and experts are warning of famine.
In Israel, the families of the hostages have held weekly rallies to demand a deal for their release, fearing that their loved ones will die in the harsh conditions of captivity the longer the fighting goes on.
What were the main points of contention in reaching the ceasefire agreement?
Hamas and other groups are still holding about 100 hostages in the October 7, 2023, attack in southern Israel that ignited the war, in which militants killed about 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and kidnapped about 250. The Israeli military declared a third of the hostages dead , but he suspects the real number could be around half.
Hamas is demanding the release of a large number of Palestinian prisoners, including senior militants convicted of organizing attacks that killed civilians. Israel is reluctant to release such prisoners, especially since one of the masterminds of the 2023 attack, slain Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, was a former prisoner freed under such a deal.
The two sides exchanged lists of names, with Israel demanding more information about which hostages were alive to ensure they were the first to come out. Hamas says it needs at least a short truce to determine the status of the hostages, who are being held by various groups in scattered, secret locations.
The emerging deal requires a multi-phase plan. In the first phase, Hamas would release the most vulnerable hostages and Israeli forces would withdraw from some areas, allowing some Palestinians to return to their homes and a wave of humanitarian aid.
In the second step – which would be negotiated during the first – the rest of the living hostages would be freed in exchange for a permanent ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli forces.
Hamas said it would not release the remaining hostages without guarantees that the war would end. The Israeli offensive has killed more than 46,000 people in Gaza, most of them women and children, according to local health authorities, who have not said how many of the dead were militants.
Hamas probably fears that Israel will resume its offensive – and increase its intensity – once the hostages are out and the militants no longer have their most valuable bargaining chip.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to do just that. He says Israel will not end the war until it destroys Hamas’ military and governance capabilities and ensures the Palestinian militant group no longer poses a threat.
The lack of trust goes both ways: Israelis fear that Hamas will drag out negotiations over the second phase, extending the ceasefire indefinitely while the hostages languish.
The talks almost broke down due to disagreements
Talks nearly collapsed last summer when Netanyahu said Israel would maintain a permanent presence in the Philadelphia Corridor, a strip of land along the Gaza-Egypt border.
Israel says Hamas has long smuggled weapons into Gaza through tunnels under the corridor and that it must control the area to prevent Hamas from rebuilding. Egypt, a key mediator, says it blocked the tunnels years ago and opposes any Israeli presence on its side of the border with Gaza.
Israel also asked for a mechanism to inspect people returning to their homes in northern Gaza, where about a million people fled after Israel ordered an evacuation at the start of the war. Their return is a key demand of Hamas, the details of which are still being worked out.
Israel says people returning to the north should be searched for weapons. This would likely require an Israeli presence in what is known as the Netzarim Corridor, a strip of closed roads and military installations that stretch from the border to the sea south of Gaza City.
Palestinians oppose any permanent Israeli occupation, although Hamas has reportedly shown flexibility over the timing of an Israeli withdrawal.
Israel says Hamas can never rule Gaza again, but has yet to accept a realistic plan for an alternative government. With no internal rivals, Hamas was able to regroup quickly after Israeli operations, even in the worst-hit areas, and still controls much of the territory.
The Biden administration has long pushed for a grand settlement in which a reformed Palestinian Authority would govern post-war Gaza with the support of Arab and Muslim countries, including Saudi Arabia, which would also take the historic step of forging ties with Israel.
But Arab and Muslim leaders say they will sign off on such plans only if they include a path to a Palestinian state in the occupied West Bank, east Jerusalem annexed by Israel and Gaza, territories Israel captured in the 1967 Middle East war.
The Israeli government opposes Palestinian statehood and has ruled out any role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza. Netanyahu says Israel will maintain unlimited security control while delegating governance to politically independent Palestinians. But no one appears to have volunteered, and Hamas has threatened anyone who cooperates with Israel in managing the territory.
Hamas, however, has said it is willing to cede control of Gaza to other Palestinians. Late last year, it agreed to an Egyptian-brokered plan for a group of independent people to govern the territory under the auspices of the Palestinian Authority, which has yet to accept the proposal.
Hamas has also demanded an end to the blockade imposed by Israel and Egypt after they took power in 2007, which experts say is needed to rebuild Gaza.
Lifting the blockade, however, would allow Hamas to achieve a major victory and finally restore its military capabilities. It’s another non-starter for Israel.