Investing.com — US President Donald Trump is not releasing the tariffs ‘in one day’ as many feared, but Barclays (LON:) warned that markets should not be complacent for a long time, and chose April 1 as a key date to look at changes in tariff policy, citing indicators from ‘America First Trade Policy’ presidential memorandum.
“President Trump did not impose tariffs on day one. Instead, he issued a presidential memorandum entitled ‘America First Trade Policy,'” Barclays said in a note. “Investors should read the memorandum as a blueprint for what to expect with tariffs next.”
The memorandum directs some departments and agencies to review and issue reports by April 1, 2025. These reports, analysts believe, will likely serve as catalysts for new tariff proposals or changes. at current tariffs.
In further support of April 1 as a key date to watch, analysts believe the timeline also provides enough time for the Senate to confirm key positions, including Howard Lutnick as Commerce Secretary and Jamieson Greer as US Trade Representative. These two roles must be filled before the Trump administration begins to change the tariff policy, analysts added.
After the reports are due on April 1, changes to the tariff policy may be announced, likely to take effect 30-to 60-days later, Barclays said.
The president’s memo suggested that various tariffs could be on the table including a universal tariff and tariffs targeting China, Mexico, and Canada.
However, Trump has already threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting February 1, and up to 100% tariffs on China on TikTok, but Barclays believes the timeline proposed in the memorandum carries more weight. our than this “off-the”. – off the cuff comments.”
The memorandum also calls for investigations into the causes of annual US trade deficits in goods and recommendations for remedies, which could include “a global supplemental tariff or other policies.”
This suggests that “the countries and sectors most vulnerable to targeted tariffs will be those with the largest trade deficits in US goods,” Barclays said.