The Biden administration this week introduced new export restrictions designed to control the development of AI worldwide and ultimately prevent the most advanced AI from falling into Chinese hands. The rule is just the latest in a series of steps taken by Donald Trump and Joe Biden to further China’s AI scrutiny.

With famous AI figures including OpenAI’s Sam Altman and Anthropic’s Dario Amodei warning of the need to “beat China” with AI, the Trump administration may take things even further.

Paul Triolo a partner at DGA Group, a global consulting firm, a member of the council of foreign relations, and a senior adviser at the University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Project on the Future of US-China Relations. Alvin Graylin an entrepreneur who previously ran the China operations for Taiwanese electronics firm HPC. Together they track China’s AI industry and the impact of US sanctions. In an email exchange, Triolo and Graylin discuss the latest sanctions, Silicon Valley rhetoric, and the dangers of viewing global AI as a zero sum game.

This interview has been edited for clarity and brevity.

What do you do with the new one? AI diffusion rule from the US government this week, aimed at restricting China’s access to AI?

Paul Triolo: Typically, it focuses on high-performance computing clusters. The rule also sets controls on proprietary model weights for the most advanced “frontier” models but is unclear on how to determine performance levels, and most open-weight (freely shared) models in AI is adapted and improved by users, including major AI companies. in China.

The complex rule and unclear compliance conditions inject a lot of uncertainty into the long-term plans of medium and major US and western hyperscalers.

For hyperscalers like Google, Microsoft, AWS, and Oracle, the rule identifies critical issues, including slower or more complex international expansion, new compliance and legal costs, impact on global R&D, and uncertain implementation requirements.

How have previous measures, including sanctions introduced by the first Trump administration, affected the AI ​​industry there?

Paul Triolo: US export controls are slowing China down, but at a high level the sanctions are consolidating the Chinese government’s will and efforts to become more self-reliant. It has plowed tens of billions to help local players reach technology or scale capacity in core areas, resulting in significant changes within the semiconductor industry and its ability to support advanced hardware for developing AI frontier models.

Chinese AI developers have become very good at leveraging legacy AI hardware from western companies and gradually integrating local alternatives into their development process. Chinese companies will continue to innovate their entire AI hardware and software stack, if not at the pace of their western counterparts.

Why do you think so many in Silicon Valley are now talking about the need to “conquer China” with AI?

Paul Triolo: There is a growing link between conservative venture capitalists, mostly located in Silicon Valley, and technology companies whose business models rely on hyping the threat of China. It’s a troubling combination that mixes the threat of China, personal gain, and pushback against regulation of advanced AI. It also describes US China competition around AI as zero sum, which is extremely dangerous.