During Donald Trump’s first term in office, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni was a far-right politician, who enthusiastically admired the US president but wielded little power at home – especially in Europe.

Today, European leaders are confident Melons – a “fantastic woman”, according to Trump – to persuade the US president to hold back on his threat to hit the EU with tariffs to force it to spend more on defense and American energy.

The Italian prime minister was the only EU leader to attend Trump’s inauguration on Monday, underscoring his ideological and personal ties to him – weeks later. dinner with Republicans at Mar-a-Lago to secure his support for a prisoner swap with Iran.

“Europe is in a state of terrible weakness and is very afraid of losing the protection of the United States, and very afraid that Trump will do something very harmful to Europe,” said Giovanni Orsina, a political scientist at Luiss University in Rome.

The same European establishment that once shunned Meloni for being a dangerous extremist now seems to be pinning their hopes on him as its “communication channel”. Trumpsaid Orsina.

Beyond the potential trade war, European leaders fear that Trump could negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the fate of Ukraine without regard to security concerns on the continent and abandon allies in the We have failed to increase defense spending.

Italy is especially vulnerable to Trump’s ire on that count because it has failed to meet NATO’s defense spending target of 2 percent of GDP by 2024. But the US president has so far ignored Rome on this issue, told reporters on Monday that “Spain is very low” and threatened to impose tariffs on the alliance’s largest arrears in military spending.

Trump said the new NATO spending target should be 5 percent of GDP, a difficult goal for countries like Italy, France and Germany whose economies are barely growing and which are struggling to contain spending on public and debt.

Meloni’s supporters say his “privileged relationship” with the US administration gives him a better chance than any of his EU peers to make the case against tariffs and other punitive measure.

“In any important decision that affects Italy and Europe, Giorgia Meloni will have the opportunity to be heard,” said Lucio Malan, a senator from his rightwing Brothers of Italy party. “The voice of Italy will be heard . . . that’s one thing.”

But Meloni may still struggle to act as Europe’s interlocutor with Trump, said Beniamino Irdi, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

“It’s not clear how much interest Trump has in developing a real relationship with Europe,” Irdi said. “He’s always tended to want bilateral relations with nation states that actually have the authority and power to make things happen.”

Meloni’s contacts seemed to be paying off even before Trump’s inauguration. After the Republican was spotted at Mar-a-Lago earlier this month, he secured the release of an Italian journalist from Iran. In retaliation, Italy released Mohammed Abedini – an Iranian national wanted by the US for allegedly smuggling drone technology to Tehran.

The prisoner exchange boosted Meloni’s approval ratings – now higher than when he took office more than two years ago. “By having the courage to go to Trump he expressed real leadership and effectiveness and it was absorbed by public opinion,” said Lorenzo Pregliasco, founder of YouTrend, an Italian pollster.

The Italian brothers have long cultivated ties with US Republicans and the Trump world, with Meloni attending the National Prayer Breakfast during the first Trump presidency.

In 2018, Trump’s “America first” ideologue Steve Bannon was the main attraction at the party’s annual political festival in Rome. In 2023, US billionaire and tech mogul Elon Musk will be the chief guest. He and Meloni have since established a strong personal and political relationship, with his government continuing to negotiate with his SpaceX company for secure military communications.

Stefano Stefanini, Italy’s former ambassador to Nato, said that in the coming months, Meloni is likely to play a “useful role in softening” his talks with Trump on Ukraine and security, including attempt to persuade him to accept a slower increase in defense spending. .

“There is no way that Italy spends 5 percent of GDP on defense,” he said. “Italy can reach 2 (percent) or even 3 percent, and he can go far enough to convince Trump that Italy – as well as other European countries – is slowly moving towards the target.”

But on issues like a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, it’s unclear to what extent the US president will listen, Stefanini said.

“There is no evidence . . . of any foreign leader who has real influence on Trump’s decisions.

Meloni may have had more success protecting some Italian products from Trump’s tariffs, Stefanini said. But that could lead to friction between Rome and the European Commission, which runs trade policy for the bloc.

“Through a successful bilateral relationship with Washington, Meloni can show other European leaders that this is the best way to deal with the Trump administration. . . not through Brussels,” Stefanini said.

“That would weaken the EU, but a weak EU is something Trump wants.”