Iran and Russia finalize long-delayed deal cooperation agreementstrengthening ties between the two countries at a time when both countries face growing geopolitical pressure.

The 20-year deal signed by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Friday strengthens military and defense cooperation and includes a provision that neither country Allowing the use of its territory for any action that threatens security nor providing any assistance to any party attacking either party.

Such an agreement has been discussed for years, but current events have made the need for one even more urgent.

For Russia, war in ukraine Its geopolitical position is already strained and, apart from Moscow, Iran has been grappling with Western sanctions and the impact of Israeli attacks and weakening Iran. several of its allies in the region,as well as The fall of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria Early December.

It can be said that Syria provided a key impetus for strengthening the relationship between the two countries. Both countries have lost Assad, a key ally, weakening their influence in the greater Middle East.

Caught off guard by the opposition offensive, both Moscow and Tehran were ultimately willing to release Assad. But they now appear committed to strengthening bilateral ties.

This is reflected in the signing of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement during Pezeshkian’s official visit to Moscow.

The deal builds not only on Russia’s cooperation with Iran on Ukraine and efforts to evade Western sanctions, but also on the North-South Transport Corridor – an initiative championed by Moscow to boost trade between Asia and Russia. .

The route aims to bypass geopolitical chokepoints such as the Suez Canal and the Baltic Sea in favor of establishing a land corridor through Iran, Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea.

Syria as catalyst

Before the outbreak of the war in Syria in 2011, both Moscow and Tehran established their own strategic partnerships with Damascus.

The Russian partnership is based on the Tartus naval base and the Khmeimim air base. The Tartus naval base was built in 1971 to project power into the Mediterranean; the Khmeimim air base was built in 2015 and was originally built to provide air support to Assad in his fight against the Syrian opposition. Over time, the air base played a key role in Moscow’s operations in Africa.

Meanwhile, Iran deepened relations with Tehran and Damascus during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, as both Tehran and Damascus opposed Western intervention in the region. Syria became an important conduit for Lebanese Shia Hezbollah, which is part of Iran’s “Shia Crescent” and “Axis of Resistance.”

The strategic interests of Iran and Russia converged in Syria as the war progressed, particularly in 2015, when both sides intervened forcefully to prevent the opposition from achieving victory.

Russia’s military intervention in 2015 stabilized the Assad regime, with the help of Iran-aligned militias, which played a decisive role in turning the tide of the conflict.

“Relations between Russia and Iran have since expanded,” Kirill Semyonov, a non-resident expert at the Russian Council for International Affairs, told Al Jazeera. “After 2020, events in Syria will have less impact on Russia-Iran relations, and Russia and Iran Relationships have moved in many new directions.”

These include military cooperation as well as expanding economic ties, with Tehran and Moscow working to bypass Western sanctions through alternative banking mechanisms and energy deals. Iran has also positioned itself as an important transit hub on Russia’s north-south transport corridor, providing an important trade route to Asia.

Since the war between Russia and Ukraine, relations between the two countries have also deepened, Among them, Russia uses drones provided by Irandriven by common interests to counter U.S. global hegemony. Both countries seek alternatives to the U.S.-led global order, and Iran sees Russia as a partner in its pivot to the east.

Iran’s joining the BRICS group of emerging economies in 2023 (Russia is already part of the club) can be seen as part of this effort. BRICS provides a platform for cooperation as Iran looks to join and integrate into a multipolar economic bloc that aligns with its goals.

“Building a multipolar world and countering the collective expansionist plans of the United States and the West remain at the core of Russia’s cooperation with Iran,” Semyonov said.

Hamidreza Aziz, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International Security Affairs, said it is this common enemy approach that has brought Iran and Russia closer.

“Both sides have taken steps to elevate their relationship to some kind of strategic partnership, particularly in areas such as military and security cooperation, and more recently economic cooperation, aimed at evading sanctions and adapting to the negative effects of Western economic pressure,” Aziz explain.

Limits of Russia-Iran Partnership

While the cooperation agreement signed on Friday marks a deepening of the partnership, unlike the treaty Russia signed with North Korea last year, it does not include mutual defense provisions or constitute the formation of a formal alliance.

This may reflect the limits of relations between Iran and Russia, as has already been seen in Syria.

There, Tehran and Moscow were unable to find common ground and often undermined each other or failed to meet the challenges of rebuilding their countries.

For example, in 2017, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin made it clear that Russia would be the only country to rebuild Syria’s energy industry. Iran’s desire to benefit from Syria’s reconstruction has been blocked by Assad and Moscow, with an Iranian lawmaker warning that Iran is being “sacrificed”.

Syria’s new government could also become a point of disagreement between Russia and Iran, with Moscow maintaining a more conciliatory approach.

Aziz noted that the impact of Assad’s fall on Russia and Iran will depend on many variables, including “whether there is some kind of behind-the-scenes agreement or understanding between the Russian side and the United States, Turkey and Iran.” (the former) Syrian rebels as part of a potential comprehensive plan that includes Syria and Ukraine.”

“For example, Russia may actually feel uncomfortable if it is able to maintain its military bases in Syria, albeit with reduced capabilities, and if a deal is reached to end the war in Ukraine after (U.S. President-elect) Donald Trump takes office So important.” Aziz added that Iran’s support is needed on all fronts in Syria and Ukraine. However, he added that he believed Iran’s relationship with Russia was unlikely to undergo any fundamental changes, given the “increasing depth of cooperation” over the past few years.

There are likely to be disagreements in other areas as well, particularly over nuclear weapons, which the West accuses Iran of pursuing. Iran’s defense doctrine officially opposes the pursuit of nuclear weapons, but some factions in Iran are now openly calling for that to change after Israel launched several strikes against its allies, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Russia has historically been involved in Iran’s nuclear program, including the construction of the Bushehr nuclear power plant, but repeatedly delayed progress in the 2000s and 2010s, leading some in Iran to accuse Russia of being an unreliable partner. Moscow also delayed the delivery of S-300 missile defense systems between 2010 and 2016 due to Western sanctions on Tehran.

“Russia does not want Iran to be equipped with nuclear weapons… This would change the balance of power in the Middle East and be detrimental to Russia’s interests. The best case scenario for Russia is that Iran remains under sanctions and challenges the United States and Europe over its nuclear program,” Tehran said Amin Montazeri, foreign policy editor of Hamihan Daily.

“If Russia were to cooperate in containing Iran, it would likely seek concessions from the United States on Ukraine,” Montazeri added.

New directions for the Middle East

As Syria has proven, geopolitical dynamics can always change based on local events, and in the absence of any strong ideological ties beyond an anti-American strategy, tensions are likely to arise in relations between Iran and Russia.

The changing nature of the alliance can be seen in Türkiye’s opposition to and cooperation with Iran and Russia.

In December 2024, as the Assad regime collapsed, the foreign ministers of Türkiye, Iran and Russia met on the sidelines of the Doha Forum in Qatar.

The tripartite meeting was held under the Astana process, a diplomatic initiative to manage the conflict in Syria, with Russia and Iran serving as guarantors for the Syrian regime and Turkey as guarantor for the opposition people.

Astana provides an opportunity for three major powers to work together to achieve security goals in Syria, even if they support different sides. But for much of the process, Türkiye was in a weak position given Assad’s de facto victory in the war.

That has now changed, with Turkey’s long-standing support for the former opposition putting it in a strong position vis-à-vis Iran and Russia and serving as a conduit for influence on Damascus.

This is a new reality they must adapt to, said Omar Özızıkık, director of Turkish studies at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies in Istanbul.

“Iran, while clearly at a disadvantage, must adapt to the new reality and establish some form of relationship with the new Syrian government,” Ozkizlchik said, referring to the Assad regime’s near-carte blanche to give Iran full power in activities in Syria.

For its part, Russia, while hoping to retain its bases in Syria, is hedging against the new reality by: Partially diverted to LibyaIt has close ties with the eastern government in Benghazi, and Russian cargo planes have flown to its Khadim base several times.

Iran, on the other hand, appears to be retreating into Iraq in order to consolidate its position. There are reports that it has urged its allies in Iraq to stop firing rockets and drones into Israel, which could lead to US-Israeli attacks on their positions.

Montazeri said that in this context, Iran is likely to strengthen its influence in Iraq, which is “the last pillar of Iran’s axis of resistance.”

Iraq’s importance now serves as a financial resource and defense buffer for Tehran, which relies on the country for economic support during sanctions.

Saeed Emamian, co-founder of the Tehran Governance and Policy think tank, said Iran has a history of adapting to changing geopolitical dynamics and will be able to withstand any changes and maintain relations with Russia.

However, whatever deal is struck between Russia and the United States after Trump takes office, Iran’s leadership does not expect Putin to fundamentally change his strategic direction toward Iran.

“Putin is well aware of the deep-seated anti-Russian stance in U.S. and European institutions,” Emamian said.

“Russia has faced an existential challenge from the West over the past three years…Putin seems unlikely to risk its long-standing alliances, especially those that have proven loyal at critical moments such as Syria and Crimea.”, Emmamian added.