Are Biden and Trump in conflict over global energy strategy? Maybe not so much.


At their confirmation hearings on Wednesday, the two men who will oversee the United States’ global energy policy, Sen. Marco Rubio and fossil fuel executive Chris Wright is expected to attack President Biden for being overly concerned about climate change.

According to the spokeswoman, Mr. Wright, who was chosen to lead the Department of Energy, will say that Mr. Biden “viewed energy as a liability instead of the vast national asset that it is.” President-elect Trump has vowed to immediately start eliminating tax credits for electric vehicles and reverse a pause on new permits for gas export terminals.

But the split between Biden and Trump, at least on major policy issues like natural gas exports, battery supply chains and competition with China, could prove to be more in tone than action.

In an interview before his confirmation hearings began, Biden’s top energy diplomat at the State Department, Geoffrey Pyatt, used similar language to Mr. Wright. Energy is a “strategic asset to strengthen our allies” and “an attribute of national security,” Mr. Pyatt, referring no doubt to fossil fuels. If he is confirmed as state secretary, Mr. Rubio will choose to replace Mr. Pyatta.

Mr. Pyatt noted that U.S. crude oil production is 70 percent higher than it was 8 years ago and that U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas, which have gone from almost zero in 2016 to now dominating the global market, will double during the upcoming mandate of Mr. Trump. “The US is an energy giant,” he said. “We are energy secure in a way we have never been before. We are no longer dependent on the Middle East from an energy standpoint, which is very different from where we were a decade or two ago.”

Under Mr. Biden’s administration, the United States is currently producing more oil than any nation at any time in history. It is also the world’s largest producer of gas and its leading exporter. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Mr Pyatt, a former ambassador to Ukraine and Greece, led US efforts to wean Europe off Russian fuel replacing them with American gasliquefied and shipped from the Gulf Coast across the Atlantic Ocean.

Mr Pyatt also noted that, in the congratulatory calls Mr Trump received from Europe and Japan after his re-election win, there was an unsurprising reaffirmation of gas’s key role in trade and mutual security.

The Biden administration’s pause in approving new requests for gas export terminals will almost certainly be overturned by Mr. Trump, but experts say the original move had little effect on U.S. dominance of the global gas market and any efforts Mr. Trump could take to further increase exports would face the reality of uncertain long-term growth in the market as the price of renewable energy sources continues to fall around the world.

“Broadly speaking, I think we’re likely to see changes in policy but continuity in energy market outcomes,” said Jason Bordoff, who directs the Center for Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.

The main difference could be, said Mr. Bordoff, that the Biden administration shaped its energy policy in terms of reducing emissions and climate change, and the Trump administration will more publicly and explicitly allude to gas prices and national security, even if the latter clearly supported Mr. Biden’s policy.

Even if Mr. If Trump succeeds in slowing the growth of the US domestic electric vehicle market, for example, he will still be forced to chip away at the Biden administration’s fear of Chinese dominance of battery supply chains “at a time of growing demand for electricity for artificial intelligence and data centers,” Mr. Bordoff.

China currently controls most of the global supply chain for clean energy technologies. More than 90 percent of the processing of rare earth minerals takes place there, as well as more than three quarters of the total production of battery cells. Most components of solar and wind power are also dominated by China, although provisions in Mr. Biden’s signature climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act, have recently accelerated U.S. production.

American investments in battery supply chains and mineral extraction in Africa and elsewhere it will almost certainly stay put and possibly grow, experts say. The US International Development Finance Corporation, which has led efforts to counter Chinese control of the sector, was created by the first Trump administration.

Trump’s new team will have to “figure out which sectors are probably so far behind that we’ll never catch up,” Mr. Pyatt, who questioned the wisdom of politicizing electric vehicles while the rest of the world had already “rolled the dice” on committing to a transition away from fossil fuels.

“The rest of the world will continue and I think our companies that are globally active have realized that,” said Mr. Pyatt, adding that he hopes those same companies will be brave enough to tell Mr. To Trump, “‘Hey, we shouldn’t be running away from this stuff because this is how we’re going to make money in the future.'”



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