Svetlana Tikhanovskaya refuses to call what happened in Belarus this weekend an election.

“This is a hoax,” the exiled opposition leader said. “This is a military-style operation, a show by the regime to stay in power.”

For three decades the country has been led by the increasingly authoritarian Alexander Lukashenko and now has the unwavering support of Vladimir Putin, who is using neighboring countries to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

This Sunday, Belarusians will once again see Lukashenko’s name on the ballot, along with four other names that have been carefully selected and will not pose any challenge.

No independent observers are allowed.

The strict controls were imposed because the last time Belarusians voted for a president, the country was rocked by massive protests.

In 2020, Alexander Lukashenko allowed Svetlana Tikhanovskaya to run against him because he believed that political novices and women would not have any impact.

This is a huge misjudgment.

After Lukashenko threw her husband in jail, Tikhanovskaya decided to replace her husband and declared victory.

When Lukashenko received 80% of the vote, crowds took to the streets, the biggest threat to Lukashenko’s rule. The protests were eventually met with mass arrests and violent suppression by riot police.

The EU subsequently refused to recognize Lukashenko’s legitimacy as president.

Today, all the major opposition figures from this period, like Tikhanovskaya, are in jail or have fled abroad. Former protesters still in Belarus have been frightened into silence.

As a result, opposition leaders did not urge them to take to the streets again on Sunday.

“We call on the people of Belarus to reject this hoax and on the international community to reject this outcome,” she told the BBC. “But I say to Belarusians, you must stay safe until the moment comes when it is truly possible.

“Because people have been living in fear and the regime is now stepping up its repression.”

When you talk to Belarusians, you immediately feel the fear.

Many people simply don’t want to talk openly about politics. Others ask you to change their name, then choose their words carefully.

Some people still in Belarus only chat via encrypted messages, which are immediately deleted.

Everyone says overt politics has disappeared from the country.

Bysol, a nonprofit that helps evacuate at-risk people, reports that the number of applications has surged to about 30 or 40 requests per month.

Since 2020, the organization has evacuated more than 1,500 people.

It also supports former political prisoners trying to rebuild their lives in exile after their release.

For veterinarian Yana Zhuravleva, it’s been tough.

Before 2020, she was focused on work and not particularly politically active. But that summer, she joined the throngs of people hopeful for change.

She was later sentenced to three years in prison for “serious breaches of public order”.

“We would be punished for everything,” she recalled of her time in prison.

She calculated that about 1 in 10 women were there because of the protest. Like them, Yana was included in a list of people “prone to extremist and destructive activities.”

“You can’t go to the gym, your only letters are from relatives, and you get fewer visiting rights. If you complain, you always hear the same response: remember why you’re here,” she told me in Poland. She moved after her recent release.

Yana admits it took “tremendous” strength to not fall into deep depression.

“In prison, I almost never cried. But after I was released from prison, I suddenly felt like crying, and I don’t know why.”

Several people I contacted mentioned seeking psychological help after being interrogated, threatened, or imprisoned.

They described a security service that hunted down anyone closest to the opposition and then demanded the names of all those detained.

The pressure never let up.

A woman who used to monitor human rights in Belarus told me she had to stop attending court hearings because the authorities found out about her.

She could be accused of being an “extremist” if they could prove any links to the banned human rights group Viasna.

“I can do specific acts of support, but I have to be careful,” she told me anonymously.

“When you see all these injustices, you have a very strong sense of helplessness.”

Viasna currently lists 1,256 political prisoners in Belarus. Dozens of people were pardoned recently but were quickly replaced.

For those fleeing the pressure cooker of Belarus, there are additional difficulties, knowing that they may not return for a long time.

That’s why Natalia (pseudonym) decided to stay in Belarus despite being detained twice for taking part in protests.

“Once you’re on the ‘suppressed’ list, you’re very vulnerable,” she explains.

“You can’t get a job because you’re in the police database and the authorities are always watching you…”

For Natalia, it meant another arrest, initially for walking her dog without a leash.

She recalled the scene when she was detained in 2023: “They claimed that I was very aggressive, swearing loudly and waving my arms.” She was held for ten days in a cell with a maximum capacity of 14 people, and each cell had a capacity of 14 people. There were two of us, and the lights were always on.

For more than a week, she slept on the wooden floor.

“It really shook my sense of security and I became more anxious,” Natalia revealed.

She is currently abroad and plans to return to her cats soon. But her neighbor said a police officer had just arrived at her home to check on any potential protesters ahead of Sunday’s vote.

Svetlana Tikhanovskaya believes that the continued crackdown shows that Lukashenko and his allies are afraid.

The opposition leader argued that “the trauma of 2020 remains and he must eliminate the possibility of any uprising.”

“He knows that Belarusians do not accept or forgive him and they still want change.”

But she acknowledged there are few signs of that in the short term.

In the period following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Belarusians hoped that their neighbor would succeed in defeating Putin with help from the West, and that Lukashenko would follow in his footsteps.

Some went to the front lines themselves, opting for force when peaceful protests failed.

But Ukraine’s military is now trying to hold its ground while President Donald Trump pushes for peace talks.

Tikhanovskaya believed that “the democratic world cannot give in to Putin” and said that Lukashenko is equally dangerous to the world.

He lets Russia fire missiles from Belarus into Ukraine and lets Russian tanks pass through his territory.

He also allowed the free flow of migrants across Poland’s borders and into the EU.

“He allowed Putin to deploy nuclear weapons and troops in Belarus, and it was a very short road to Poland and Lithuania,” Tikhanovskaya noted.

“He and Putin are a couple and they support other dictators. He is part of this evil chain.”

There is no doubt that Alexander Lukashenko’s reinstatement on Sunday will go according to his plan.

“These people are very capable,” explains Yana, a former political prisoner.

“They really suppressed the possibility of protest.”

She is now trying to return to her veterinary career, but in Poland, and recovering from three difficult years in prison.

People I’ve spoken to now view Lukashenko’s retirement or eventual death as their best hope for seeing democracy.

Meanwhile, many are shifting focus: Rising interest in reviving Belarusian culture and language is a reason to object. In this case, this is the last thing many people would dare to do.

“No one said this publicly, but we felt there were no prospects. There was depression,” Natalia admitted.

But even so, there was no obvious regret.

Svetlana Tikhanovskaya’s life has changed dramatically since she entered politics.

Her husband, cut off from his homeland, was also a political prisoner – in total isolation for nearly two years.

The opposition leader insisted she still “truly believes” in change.

“2020 was a huge change in the mentality of Belarus. I don’t know how long it will take, but this change will not disappear.”