(Reuters) – Goldman Sachs said on Monday that the copper market is pricing in around 50% that there will be a 10% U.S. tariff on the metal by the end of the first quarter of this year.

Analysts at the US investment bank said in a note to a client that the estimate is similar to their own subjective 50% probability of an effective 10% tariff on copper by the end of the year.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was down 0.3 percent at $9,167 a metric ton at 0706 GMT after hitting a one-month high last week. (MET/L)

President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House later in the world day with an inauguration speech that traders will look at the policies that will be enacted on the first day. Trump has talked about tariffs of up to 10% on global imports, as well as 60% on Chinese products and a 25% import surcharge on Canadian and Mexican products.

Goldman also noted that the oil market has a nearly 40% chance of a 25% US tariff on Canadian goods, including oil, compared to the bank’s subjective 15% chance of an effective tariff of 25% at the end of the year.

Brent crude futures were trading around $80.69 a barrel, while the most active April contract for US West Texas Intermediate crude was steady at $77.36. (O/R)

The investment bank assigned a 10% chance of the introduction of an effective 10% tariff on gold in the next 12 months. He said bullion’s status as a financial asset means it is likely to be exempt from broad-based tariffs.

Spot gold prices rose 0.3% to $2,708.77 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures were little changed at $2,749.70. (GOAL/)

The amount of gold stocks in COMEX-approved warehouses has risen by a third in the past six weeks as market players sought deliveries to hedge against the possibility of tariffs.

(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad and Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Christopher Cushing)