Before Jack Nader started posting beauty videos on TikTok in 2023, he was Starbucks Barista in Chicago, living at home with her parents.

But in April of that year, after Nader, now 21, started taking his videos seriously, his TikTok account exploded. With more than 500,000 followers, he was able to earn enough through brand sponsorships and a share of ad revenue that he quit his job at a coffee shop and got his own apartment.

“This is my 9-to-5 job,” Nader told CNBC. He said he earns between $1,000 and $12,000 a month as a creator. “This is how I make a living. This is how I pay for my groceries. This is how millions of small businesses make their money.”

Nader’s new reality, however, is far from stable. TikTok, owned by China’s ByteDance, is approaching a January 19 deadline to Sold or face ban Like many other creators who rely on TikTok, Nader has been urging his fans to find him on other social media apps, lest he completely lose them and the significant revenue stream they represent.

“Not everyone is from My TikTok It’s really sad what’s going to happen next,” Nader said.

TikTok risks have been present for years, but intensified after April. President Joe Biden signed a copy law That requires ByteDance to divest its short video app this month. If ByteDance fails to sell TikTok in time, apple and Google will be legally forced to ensure its platform no longer supports the app in the United States

President-elect Donald TrumpTrump, who supported a ban on TikTok during his first administration, has since changed his stance on the matter. At the end of last month, he urge The Supreme Court stepped in and forced a delay on Biden’s ban to give him time to find a “political solution.” His inauguration will take place on January 20.

Trump’s rhetoric on TikTok begins to shift Met in February Partnering with billionaire Jeff Yass, a Republican megadonor and major investor in ByteDance who also has a stake in ByteDance’s owner truth societyTrump’s social media company.

Supreme Court hear oral argument On January 10, the two sides faced off. During the more than two hours of court proceedings, the judges peppered TikTok’s lead lawyer with questions about the app’s ties to China and appeared generally unconvinced by TikTok’s main argument that the law infringes on the speech of millions of people. Right to freedom. Number of individual users in the United States

On Thursday, businessman Frank McCourt’s internet advocacy group free plan Announced that it has submitted a proposal to acquire TikTok from ByteDance. Calling it “the people’s bid for TikTok,” the group said it would restructure the app to run on a U.S.-owned platform and prioritize users’ digital security, but did not disclose the terms of its bid.

A ruling will likely be made at some point. Nader won’t wait for a solution to determine next steps.

Currently, he downloads four to five TikTok videos every day in order to migrate the content to Yuan Instagram Reels and alphabetical YouTube clips. After downloading the videos, Nader re-edits them, optimizing the clips for each application.

“It took me over a year and a half to build the following content on TikTok into a full-time job for me,” Nader said. “Now it’s a matter of rebuilding the entire brand on another platform, which is not ideal.”

Nader said he hasn’t made any money from Reels or Shorts yet.

Carter previously worked in the luxury retail industry and has now left Her TikTok videos Tell her fans they can find her on YouTube, Instagram and Patreon.

“It’s not just a silly app that people use to post dance videos,” said Carter, who makes an average of about $4,000 a month from her TikTok activities. “In terms of changing people’s lives, changing people’s businesses, it’s pretty remarkable.”

Experts predict that TikTok may still find a way to continue operating in the United States, but if the app is indeed suspended, YouTube, Facebook and Instagram will be the biggest winners from the incident.

TikTok has about 115 million monthly active users in the U.S., far behind YouTube’s 258 million and Facebook’s 253 million, according to data from a market intelligence firm. sensor tower. Instagram has 131 million users. Sensor Tower data shows that short videos that imitate TikTok clips are getting more viewers on these apps, accounting for about 41% of Instagram users’ time.

Although TikTok has a smaller user base in the United States and a lower share of total ad revenue than its main rivals, it is a dominant platform for creators, especially those who focus on short-form content.

Influencer marketing platform HyperAuditor defines a creator as a user with more than 1,000 subscribers. TikTok has nearly 8.5 million people in this category in the United States, compared with about 5.2 million on Instagram and 1.1 million on YouTube, according to HyperAuditor.

Meanwhile, TikTok accounts for 9% of digital ad spending on U.S. social media platforms, compared with 31% for Facebook, 25% for Instagram and 21% for YouTube, according to Sensor Tower.

Sensor Tower told CNBC in an email that if TikTok disappeared, “it would amount to billions of dollars that could potentially be captured by competitors.” electronic marketer It is estimated that Meta and YouTube could receive about half of the reallocated funds if the ban were to take effect.

This type of market shift has occurred elsewhere. India bans TikTok In June 2020, the app had approximately 150 million monthly users in the country. According to Sensor Tower estimates, one year later, the number of monthly active users of Instagram in India has increased by 20% year-on-year, while the number of monthly active users of YouTube has increased by 11% year-on-year.

“That’s when we saw the biggest jump in Reels utilization ever,” said Meghana Dhar, a former Instagram executive who was working at the company when the Indian ban was implemented. “If TikTok is banned and creators have to fight between YouTube Shorts and Instagram, many creators are already hedging their bets.”

At Meta, leaders within Instagram scheduled multiple impromptu meetings for Friday after hearing oral arguments before the Supreme Court, a person familiar with the matter told CNBC. While many within the company have long expected TikTok to remain active in the U.S., Instagram leaders began instructing their teams to prepare for a potential influx of users if the ban passes, said the person, who asked not to be identified for confidentiality reasons. Prepare.

For example, some creators will advise fans to find them on “fbook” rather than writing on Facebook. Others will make enough noise to get a message out to their followers while hoping to avoid detection by TikTok, Nolan said. Some creators are partnering with brands to incentivize users through rewards giveaway For users who follow them on other apps, she added.

“They’re obviously not saying, ‘Come to Instagram,'” Nolan said. “They were like, ‘Follow me,’ and then they mouthed it.”

Even with multiple other options for finding a large audience, creators still worry about trying to rebuild their business and whether enough followers will migrate with them.

“Whatever happens happens, we just have to make the best of it,” said Nealie Boschma, a 27-year-old Los Angeles native who has been living as a full-time creator since 2022. How do I have to look at it so I don’t panic. “

Despite the potential upheaval, Boschma said she views the potential ban as an opportunity to expand her career and become more creative.

Bosma begins production TikTok video After quitting his job at a racecourse, he chose to live off his savings while trying to become a creator. Bosma’s bet on herself worked, and she made enough money to live in Los Angeles and pay for her own house and car.

Now, she’s making sure her TikTok followers see links to her other profiles so they can find her on other apps like YouTube. Boschma said that if the ban passes, she plans to create a video specifically asking her fans to follow her elsewhere.

This would be a huge boost as she currently has 2 million followers on TikTok and only 278,000 on YouTube. But Bosma said she will try to make longer videos, an area she has always wanted to explore.

“Whether TikTok disappears or not, I do think some things will work out,” Bosma said. “I will establish myself somewhere else, just like I did on TikTok.”

watch: Christoff & Co. CEO Niki Christoff says Supreme Court may uphold TikTok ban