Traders fear that Trump’s diplomacy will put cross-border deals on ice


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Top dealmakers and investors have warned that the incoming Trump administration could use the approval of cross-border deals to force foreign governments to conform to US policy priorities, such as increase in defense spending.

Several advisers who spoke to people close to the president-elect said Donald Trump is determined to use all government agencies to push other countries to support his agenda, including blocking deal approvals. for their companies.

“We are certainly preparing for it,” said one European merger and acquisitions banker. “People in this administration have no qualms about using every lever at their disposal to achieve their goals.”

Trump is expected to put pressure on European countries to increase their defense spending up to 5 percent of GDP and pushing for more favorable terms from trading partners. He threatened to impose tariffs on US imports from Europe and other allies.

Inbound deals are overseen by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US, or Cfius, which examines transactions for US national security risks. The inter-agency panel is chaired by the Treasury secretary and includes officials from foreign and domestic intelligence agencies as well as top economic advisers and representatives from major government ministries. If a deal is deemed to have unresolved security risks, Cfius can recommend that the president block or impose conditions on the transaction.

The approval process, once largely bureaucratic, has become increasingly politicized under the first Trump and now the Biden administrations, according to several people who spoke to the Financial Times. In practice, the committee has a broad objective to determine what constitutes a national security risk, which creates room for political maneuvering.

“Cfius (has) wide discretion to do what they want, as long as there is a national security connection,” said a lawyer on the cross-border deal. “There are a few deals (in the pipeline) right now – we’ll see what happens when they go through the Cfius process.”

Bill Reinsch, chair of international business at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Cfius’ analysis of Nippon Steel’s planned purchase of US Steel was more political than it should have been. Joe Biden’s rejection of the deal represents the first time a US president has intervened to stop a transaction involving a non-Chinese company acquiring a target without a US military contract. That rejection is now the subject of the lawsuit.

“Earlier the president announced his opposition to the deal, and that poisoned the well and sent a strong message about what the bureaucrats need to do,” Reinsch said. “(Trump’s) tendency is to look at these things from a personal point of view, and what he thinks is in his interest. It can also be political under him. “

A Treasury spokesman declined to comment on Cfius becoming a politician under Biden. The Trump transition team did not respond to a request for comment.

In his first term, Trump sought to restrict the social media platform TikTok, which is owned by Chinese parent company ByteDance, in part through a Cfius investigation. He also blocked the chipmaker from being registered in Singapore Broadcom is attempting a $142bn hostile takeover to rival Qualcomm in 2018, based on Cfius recommendations.

“The first Trump president is an amateur,” said another lawyer focused on foreign investment. “This time he will know how to force the levers of power and he will not only use Cfius, he will use the antitrust agencies, the Fed and many others. . . it can all be unpredictable. ”



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