The last year has been disastrous for the environment and climate change action. UN-backed talks to tackle biodiversity, plastic pollution, desertification and climate change have either failed or produced woefully inadequate deals. Donald Trump’s re-election in the United States shows that resistance to climate action will only intensify.

All this comes in a record-breaking year, with average global temperatures exceeding the Paris Agreement limit for the first time: 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

As 2025 begins, prospects for meaningful climate action appear bleak. But Trump 2.0’s anti-climate policies and the intransigence of other major national and corporate polluters could also push for radical change in other parts of the world. Indeed, 2025 may open up space for the Global South to push for climate action, and it only makes sense that Brazil, as host of this year’s COP30, should take the lead.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva returned to power two years ago on a promise of social and environmental change. However, after initial success, his government ran out of steam. This year may be Lula’s last chance to deliver on his promise to provide global leadership on climate change and ensure his legacy as a changemaker extends beyond Brazil’s borders.

unfulfilled promise

During the presidential campaign, Lula strongly emphasized his opposition to the anti-environmental and anti-minority policies of his right-wing predecessor Jair Bolsonaro and pledged to reverse those policies to focus on the protection of the Amazon rainforest and the protection of indigenous peoples, including indigenous peoples. Protection of vulnerable communities.

After winning, he appointed climate activist Marina Silva to head the Ministry of Environment and indigenous leader Sonia Guajajara to head the new Ministry of Indigenous Affairs. At his inauguration on January 1, 2023, he was accompanied by Chief Raoni, a prominent indigenous leader who has become a symbol of the fight to protect the Amazon rainforest.

Three weeks later, he visited a Yanomami community devastated by land grabbing, violence by illegal miners and loggers, food insecurity and disease. He called their plight a genocide and promised immediate action.

Climate change has also become a pillar of his foreign policy. At the COP28 conference in Dubai in 2023, where countries in the Global South are pushing for progress on climate action, Lula declared: “Brazil is willing to lead by example.”

Some preliminary results have been achieved. During Lula’s first six months as president, Amazon deforestation fell by 33.6%. Police and military mobilized to crack down on illegal mining, within months sharp decline Amount of illegal mining. In May, Brazil’s Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources issued a ban on oil exploration along the Amazon delta.

But Lula’s government failed to maintain this momentum. Security operations against illegal miners have slowed, allowing them to resume their activities. Yanomami child mortality rate Continue to increase Aboriginal communities continue to suffer.

Progress on deforestation has begun to slow, and by August 2024, deforestation rates Rose again. Meanwhile, the expansion of agricultural and cattle land has not stopped; transfer Go to the Cerrado savanna, where deforestation doesn’t make headlines like it does in the Amazon.

Meanwhile, Lula’s government has been pushing for the completion of the BR-319 highway, which is expected to connect the northern states of Amazonas and Roraima to the rest of Brazil. Construction across the Amazon will have catastrophic impacts on the environment and indigenous communities.

Lula has also publicly expressed support for oil exploration off Brazil’s coast, at a time when the country is facing some of its worst flooding and wildfires. His government’s actions on these issues have also been criticized.

Wildfires swept through Brazil from January to October, destroying large swaths of the Amazon rainforest and Pantanal and devastating indigenous communities; some 37.42 million acres (about 15.1 million hectares) burned. Despite the unprecedented scale of the crisis, Lula stopped short of declaring a state of emergency, which would have made it easier for local authorities to access federal resources to respond to the crisis.

last chance to act

When Trump returns to the White House in Washington, he is sure to make good on his promise to roll back environmental regulations and clear the way for dirty industries to pollute unchecked. Other rich countries and companies have canceled their own climate commitments.

In this environment, which completely ignores the ongoing climate catastrophe and the plight of those most affected by it, the world needs a leader who can take decisive action. For two years, Lula has been delivering brilliant speeches about the need for action on climate change, the need to protect the poor and the need to clarify the relationship between those responsible for climate disasters and those who bear the brunt.

Now it’s time for him to put his words into practice. As he declared in 2023, now is his time to lead by example. He has all the human and natural resources at his disposal to do this.

Brazil has the largest rainforest on earth and nearly 1.7 million indigenous people who know how to protect and care for nature. They know what needs to be done to protect this extraordinary carbon sink because their carbon footprint is the lowest of any of us. Not only do they need to be part of the urgent actions needed to protect their communities, but they also need to be part of Brazil’s overall climate and environmental policy.

Listening to indigenous peoples as well as dozens of environmental experts and activists, some of whom are already in Lula’s government, means the president will have to abandon some of his traditional ties to big business.

Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT) is known for its reliance on fossil fuels. It’s time to end it. Although Brazil’s public oil company, Petrobras, is an important economic player, it should not dictate the government’s environmental and economic policies. With the cost of setting up renewable energy production so low, Brazil could invest in a massive expansion of wind and solar power. Petrobras is already making such investments; instead of insisting on drilling further for oil, it could double down on investments in solar and wind energy to become the country’s leading renewable energy company.

Lula also must break away from the toxic influence of big agribusiness. There is a way to farm and raise livestock without deforestation and pollution. Pushing the industry to adopt sustainable, green practices won’t destroy it; it will make it more resilient to the country’s inevitable climate catastrophe.

The same goes for the mining industry. Lula’s government has made some efforts to regulate and stamp out illegal practices, but more is needed. Illegal mining must be eradicated from indigenous territories and nature reserves.

The government could form a task force composed of federal and state law enforcement agencies, intelligence services and the military to focus on the problem. Not only can they recruit indigenous people to help them, but they can recruit all the poor people who are unemployed and trapped in illegal mining. Eliminating illegal mining would not only protect the rainforest and indigenous communities, but also deal a serious blow to organized crime.

In fact, strong climate and nature protection policies benefit not only the natural environment but also the people of Brazil. They will create more secure and dignified jobs – a key demand of Labour’s voter base.

Leading radical change at home would give Lula more credibility on the global stage. Words backed up by action can have a powerful impact. At a time when people around the world feel abandoned by political elites, demonstrating a commitment to climate action and the well-being of vulnerable communities can mobilize millions of people and create enough momentum to push inert governments to take action. This could become Lula’s global legacy, if he has the courage to pursue it.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.