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Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world
“At 2.24pm, sitting alone, Mr Trump issued a tweet attacking Mr Pence and inciting chaos. . . A minute later, the Secret Service of the United States was forced to evacuate to Mr Pence in a secure location in the Capitol. When a White House adviser found out, he rushed to the dining room and informed Mr Trump, who replied, ‘What man?’ “
That’s an extract from a recent release report by special counsel, Jack Smith, on the attack on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021. Many of Donald Trump’s supporters will consider changing that report – just as Trump is sworn in for a second term term of office – as irrelevant. They argue that the American people have made their verdict when they go to the polls in November. Democrats campaigned on the idea that Trump threatened democracy. However, Trump won a clear victory.
That raises an interesting question. Why is “democracy at risk” not a winning argument?
One theory is that voters simply don’t care. A poll taken before the presidential vote showed that 76 percent of Americans believe that US democracy is in danger. But only 7 percent believe that democracy is the most important issue in the election.
While most Republicans and Democrats agree that US democracy is under threat, they seem to have very different views on where the threat is coming from. For Democrats, the threat is Trump; for the Republicans, it is the censorship of an “awakened” elite.
That misunderstanding underscores an important distinction I heard Pratap Bhanu Mehta, an Indian scholar, make recently in a lecture at the London School of Economics. Mehta argues that there are two competing understandings of the word “democracy” in contemporary politics. The first sees democracy as a method — a way to resolve disputes or clashes of values. The second sees it as a means of empowering citizens – the will of the people.
As Mehta observed, “democracy requires both values and empowerment”. But when voters feel hindered, rather than empowered, by the political system, they may reject liberal values in favor of a strongman who promises to get things done. An illiberal version of “democracy” then emerged, which – in the name of the people – attacked the checks and balances essential to liberal democracy.
That’s what happened in the US. An opinion poll last week found that two-thirds of Democrats and 80 percent of Republicans believe that the government serves itself and the powerful over ordinary people. A large majority distrusts Congress and the media.
Trump rose to power by promising to be a strong leader who would break the power of the corrupt elite and “make America great again”. He repeatedly claimed that the US system is “rigged” and controlled by the “deep state” that is hurting ordinary Americans. In 2016, Trump told the Republican convention that the US system allows “the powerful (to) beat people who can’t defend themselves”, claiming that “I’m the only one who can fix it”.
In his most recent campaign, Trump described all the court cases against him as simple evidence of the machinations of the deep state. He promised Americans who felt similar persecution that “I will repay you”.
In some places, at some times, strong rule and illiberal democracy will be popular. on El SalvadorPresident Nayib Bukele suspended basic rights, imprisoned 83,000 people under state of emergency laws, sent troops to congress and was accused of authorizing torture, killings and enforced disappearances. But El Salvador’s crime rates dropped and Bukele won re-election in a landslide.
The leader of El Salvador sadly summed up the creed of illiberal democracy when he told the UN: “Some say we imprison thousands, but in fact we free millions.” Bukele has been praised by top Trump supporters, including Elon Musk and Tucker Carlson.
A possible development to watch, as Trump takes power, is if the future US president intends to follow Bukele or Viktor Orbán in Hungary by declaring a state of emergency which would allow him to suspend the normal operation of the law. If Trump seeks emergency powers, liberals will sound the alarm. But they must be prepared for the possibility that many ordinary Americans, like ordinary Salvadoreans or Hungarians, may agree.
If supporters of liberal democracy want to win the political battle, anger and resistance will not be enough. They have to defeat the arguments of the strong leaders and the illiberal democrats.
President Biden began the process in his farewell speech from the White House, when he warned that the US was taken over by an oligarchy. Liberals also need to show that powerful rulers are more likely to empower themselves and their cronies than the people. Corruption is the almost inevitable result.
In the coming months and years, Trump’s opponents will have to talk relentlessly about what the consequences of oligarchy power and strongman rule are for ordinary Americans. There is likely to be a lot of corruption and self-management to teach.
If Trump’s opponents can make their case, and at the same time protect the integrity of the electoral system, the liberal version of democracy may still prevail in the end.
