Islamabad, Pakistan – On Thursday, when opposition leader Omar Ayub Khan, a member of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), presented the party’s proposal to the country’s National Assembly Speaker Ayaz Sadiq In calling for a charter, it appears the long-running deadlock between the government and the country’s most popular political party may finally be resolved.

However, just 24 hours later, former Prime Minister and PTI founder Imran Khan was Sentenced to 14 years in prison Jailed by an accountability court on abuse of power and corruption charges.

The two sides launched talks late last year on several contentious issues, including the release of jailed PTI leaders, whom the party calls “political prisoners,” and addressing alleged electoral fraud in last year’s elections. disputed election.

Three rounds of talks chaired by National Assembly Speaker Sadiq have been held so far, with PTI presenting its charter of demands in the last meeting.

The government is expected to respond to the requests within seven days. Khan’s conviction, however, has reignited fears that the political unrest of the past three years could return, plunging Pakistan into chaos again at a time when it faces security and economic crises.

Aasiya Riaz, co-director of the Pakistan Institute for Legislative Development and Transparency (PILDAT), an independent think tank, stressed the importance of continued dialogue.

“It is in the interest of the country that talks aimed at achieving meaningful results must continue,” she told Al Jazeera.

“Both the establishment-backed government and PTI are likely to resume their respective pressure and agitation tactics. This will lead to chaos and uncertainty, but eventually, they will have to return to the negotiating table,” Riaz added.

Once my favorite, now my pariah

Imran Khan was ousted from power in April 2022 through a vote of no confidence in parliament. He claimed there was a conspiracy between Pakistan’s powerful military, his political opponents and the United States to overthrow him from power.

The military is considered Pakistan’s most influential power broker, having directly ruled the country for nearly three of the 76 years since independence. While no prime minister in Pakistan’s history has finished his term, three of the four military dictators each ruled for nearly a decade.

Khan, once thought to have the support of the military, came to power in August 2018 but subsequently fell out of favor.

Both the U.S. and the military denied his accusations, but his ouster triggered a harsh crackdown on Pakistan’s Hizbul Islami Party, with Khan leading numerous long-distance marches and protests denouncing the establishment, as the military is euphemistically called in Pakistan. “Establishment”).

Things come to a head May 9, 2023 When Khan was briefly detained in Kadir Trust Case – A corruption case in which Khan was convicted on Friday.

His release within two days did little to quell the unrest as PTI supporters went on a rampage across the country, attacking public buildings, military offices and installations, including the army headquarters in Rawalpindi.

Thousands of PTI members were arrested and more than 100 were tried under military law. over 80 Sentenced to three to ten years in prison. Khan also faces charges of sedition and “terrorism” in connection with the incidents.

Negotiation Challenges

Despite setbacks, including Khan’s arrest in August 2023 and legal hurdles for PTI’s participation in the election, the party’s candidates secured top seats in February polls.

However, after Khan was jailed, the leadership of India’s Tehreek-e-Insaf held several protests in Islamabad to pressure Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government to release him.

In November, PTI launched a march to Islamabad, calling it a “last call”. Clashes with law enforcement dispersed the march, PTI claimed at least 12 employees were killed, but the government denies this figure.

In its written demand, the PTI appeared to give up its insistence on reversing the election results.

But the party urged the government to set up two independent investigative teams with mandates to investigate the events that took place on May 9, 2023, and November 26 last year, the day of the march to Islamabad. It also continued to press for the release of “political prisoners.”

PTI core committee member Abuzar Salman Niazi clarified the party’s stance.

“We are not asking for an executive order to release people. We are asking for a stop to judicial interference. If someone is granted bail, they should not be immediately arrested in new cases,” Niazi told Al Jazeera.

Niazi added that negotiations would continue, noting that the current demands were just a start.

“The government has an opportunity to act on these soft demands. We have other demands but these are just the beginning and we want to see the government take action and launch investigations into the events of May 9 and November 26,” he added.

Government legal affairs spokesman Akhil Malik said he remained optimistic about ongoing negotiations despite Khan’s conviction.

“Court proceedings and dialogue are different things. We have seven days to respond to PTI’s demands and the prime minister has formed a team to assess the demands,” Malik told Al Jazeera.

Reconciliation or stalemate?

Some analysts believe the PTI demand represents a concession and provides the government with an opportunity for reconciliation.

Islamabad-based political analyst Ahmed Ijaz noted that PTI ignoring dissatisfaction with the February 2024 elections could soften negotiations.

“This allows the government to position itself as maintaining stability,” Ijaz said.

On the other hand, political commentator Fahd Hussain said PTI’s demands seemed “rather unrealistic” at this stage.

“Both the commissions they are seeking are akin to charge sheets and many related matters have already been brought before the courts,” Hussein told Al Jazeera.

Malik, the government’s legal spokesman, stressed the need for clarity on PTI’s demands.

“For example, PTI said political prisoners should be released but they never provided us with any list of who they were referring to. It seems to be an open-ended matter, including those involved in the May 9 or November 26 incidents . So, I think it’s still at a very early stage, but we have seven days to sort these things out,” he added.

“Active development”

Over the past three years, Khan has repeatedly accused the military, especially the army chief Said Asim Munirresponsible for his party’s plight.

A recent meeting in Peshawar between current PTI chief Gohar Ali Khan (no relation to Imran Khan) and Munir raised eyebrows despite the military’s insistence that political talks do not fall within its jurisdiction.

PTI hailed the meeting as a “positive development” and claimed that the meeting raised demands from Munir. However, military sources said the meeting focused only on Security in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a province ruled by the Bharatiya Janata Party and bordering Afghanistan, has been hit by a series of attacks that Pakistan has blamed on armed groups seeking refuge in Afghanistan.

But government officials who were part of the negotiating team slammed the “politicization” of the meeting with the Army chief.

Senator Irfan Siddiqui told a press conference in Islamabad on Thursday that “there are no direct negotiations taking place outside the government’s negotiating team”.

However, Islamabad-based analyst Ijaz believes the meeting is significant.

“If dialogue starts with the army, the case and conviction against Khan will become irrelevant,” he said.

the road ahead

But analysts warn that mistrust between the PTI, the government and the military could still derail negotiations.

PTI’s Niazi said the consequences of this would leave the party with no choice but to revert to its radical stance and go into agitation mode again.

“What options do you think we have other than going back to protesting on the streets? We are trying to negotiate keeping in mind the larger interests of the country and the public, but the responsibility lies with the government. They have to play a bigger role for the dialogue to be successful. ,” said the Lahore-based PTI leader.

However, Islamabad-based Hussain said hope of “substantial” change in the situation in Pakistan came from signals coming from Washington, D.C., where Donald Trump is expected to be sworn in as president on Monday.

“If Donald Trump administration Intervention can help PTI. Otherwise, the party seems to have run out of options,” he said.